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KBNA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
44%
WN2
42%
AIFS
38%
EPS
11%
HRES
9%
Consensus
22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 26.6¢Risks 26.60u
VS
HRESNO 73.4¢Risks 73.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.40u · HRES −73.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:01+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00AIFS Single: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-19T17:29:29+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-19T22:46:14+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.5% · 2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.5% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T17:29:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T22:46:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.3% · 2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.3% · 2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.3% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.3% · 2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.3% · 2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.3% · 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.2% · 2026-10-19T17:29:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.2% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.2% · 2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.2% · 2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.2% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.2% · 2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.2% · 2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.2% · 2026-10-19T22:46:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:01+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00IFS HRES: 20.5% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00IFS HRES: 20.5% · 2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00IFS HRES: 20.5% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00IFS HRES: 20.5% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00IFS HRES: 20.5% · 2026-10-19T17:29:29+00:00IFS HRES: 20.5% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00IFS HRES: 20.5% · 2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00IFS HRES: 8.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00IFS HRES: 8.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00IFS HRES: 8.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00IFS HRES: 8.8% · 2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00IFS HRES: 8.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:14+00:00IFS HRES: 8.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00IFS HRES: 8.8% · 2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00IFS HRES: 8.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00IFS HRES: 8.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00IFS HRES: 8.8% · 2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00IFS HRES: 8.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00ICON: 26.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:01+00:00ICON: 26.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 26.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00ICON: 26.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 26.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00ICON: 26.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00ICON: 26.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00ICON: 26.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00ICON: 26.1% · 2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-19T17:29:29+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:14+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 17:2910-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:01+00:0034.5%14.6%42.8%20.6%26.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:0034.5%14.6%42.8%20.6%26.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:0034.5%14.6%42.8%20.6%26.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:0034.5%14.6%42.8%20.6%26.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:0034.5%14.6%42.8%20.6%26.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:0034.5%12.5%42.2%20.6%26.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:0034.5%12.5%42.2%20.6%26.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:0034.5%12.5%42.2%20.6%26.1%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:0032.6%12.5%42.2%20.6%26.1%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:0032.5%12.5%42.2%20.5%26.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:0032.5%11.9%42.2%20.5%26.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:0032.5%11.9%42.2%20.5%26.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:0032.5%11.9%42.2%20.5%26.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:29+00:0032.5%11.9%39.2%20.5%26.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:0032.5%11.9%39.2%20.5%26.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:0032.5%11.9%39.2%20.5%26.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:0035.1%11.9%39.2%8.8%44.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:0035.1%11.9%39.2%8.8%44.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:0035.1%11.9%39.2%8.8%44.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:0035.1%11.9%39.2%8.8%44.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:14+00:0035.1%11.9%39.2%8.8%44.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:0035.1%11.3%41.5%8.8%44.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:0035.1%11.3%41.5%8.8%44.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:0035.1%11.3%41.5%8.8%44.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:0037.7%11.3%41.5%8.8%44.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:0037.7%11.3%41.5%8.8%44.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:0037.7%11.3%41.5%8.8%44.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON44%79.1°F10.0°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 242%79.4°F5.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
AIFS Single38%78.7°F5.7°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
National Blend37%79.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble11%76.5°F3.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES9%71.8°F6.4°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261026-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗