KBNA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 21 · 16:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

29%

21%

18%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.8¢Risks 25.75u

EPSNO 74.2¢Risks 74.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.25u · EPS −74.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	21.9%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	4.3%	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	2.1%	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	3.1%	6.8%	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	14.5%	6.7%	0.7%	—	9.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	15.2%	17.0%	2.2%	14.0%	14.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	15.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	10.7%	8.4%	1.8%	—	9.0%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	20.6%	—	1.5%	—	10.0%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	2.4%	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	11.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	41%	79.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	78.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	75.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	76.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-21 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	14%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-21 15:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	77.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	75.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-21 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261026-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗