KBNA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

39%

37%

21%

12%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 25.9¢Risks 25.90u

EPSNO 74.1¢Risks 74.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +74.10u · EPS −74.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:31:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:01+00:00	34.5%	14.6%	42.8%	20.6%	26.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	34.5%	14.6%	42.8%	20.6%	26.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	34.5%	14.6%	42.8%	20.6%	26.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	34.5%	14.6%	42.8%	20.6%	26.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00	34.5%	14.6%	42.8%	20.6%	26.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	34.5%	12.5%	42.2%	20.6%	26.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	34.5%	12.5%	42.2%	20.6%	26.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	34.5%	12.5%	42.2%	20.6%	26.1%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	32.6%	12.5%	42.2%	20.6%	26.1%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	32.5%	12.5%	42.2%	20.5%	26.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00	32.5%	11.9%	42.2%	20.5%	26.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	32.5%	11.9%	42.2%	20.5%	26.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	32.5%	11.9%	42.2%	20.5%	26.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:29+00:00	32.5%	11.9%	39.2%	20.5%	26.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	32.5%	11.9%	39.2%	20.5%	26.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	32.5%	11.9%	39.2%	20.5%	26.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	35.1%	11.9%	39.2%	8.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	35.1%	11.9%	39.2%	8.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	35.1%	11.9%	39.2%	8.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00	35.1%	11.9%	39.2%	8.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:14+00:00	35.1%	11.9%	39.2%	8.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	35.1%	11.3%	41.5%	8.8%	44.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	35.1%	11.3%	41.5%	8.8%	44.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	35.1%	11.3%	41.5%	8.8%	44.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	37.7%	11.3%	41.5%	8.8%	44.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	37.7%	11.3%	41.5%	8.8%	44.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	37.7%	11.3%	41.5%	8.8%	44.4%
2026-10-20T15:31:45+00:00	36.9%	11.9%	39.9%	21.1%	38.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	40%	79.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	39%	78.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	78.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	28%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	75.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	76.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	77.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261026-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗