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KBNA / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
77%
AIFS
72%
EPS
71%
HRES
59%
ICON
46%
Consensus
69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 61.3¢Risks 61.30u
VS
ICONNO 38.7¢Risks 38.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.70u · ICON −38.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 51.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 58.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 38.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.6% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 42.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 46.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 47.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 41.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.2%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:001.4%———4.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:003.3%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0070.3%———35.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0030.1%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0014.6%———21.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0012.0%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0024.4%———23.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:007.3%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0050.5%———32.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0050.5%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0046.3%———33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0066.0%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0062.5%———46.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0038.0%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0063.1%———47.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0056.4%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0060.0%———50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0051.6%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0058.2%———45.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0032.7%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0037.7%———34.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0040.3%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0047.6%—51.2%—41.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0055.9%—58.3%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0048.8%———38.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0045.7%—7.1%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0051.3%—48.1%—32.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0050.0%—38.6%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0046.1%—30.6%—32.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0038.9%—41.4%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0049.3%17.1%19.8%42.6%39.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0045.2%—8.6%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 277%79.2°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single72%78.9°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble71%77.3°F3.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES59%77.0°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend54%76.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON46%74.5°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261027-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 76°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗