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KBNA / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
77%
AIFS
72%
EPS
71%
HRES
59%
ICON
46%
Consensus
69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 61.3¢Risks 61.30u
VS
ICONNO 38.7¢Risks 38.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.70u · ICON −38.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00AIFS Single: 72.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00IFS HRES: 59.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00IFS HRES: 59.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 59.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 59.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 59.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:0072.3%71.3%76.6%59.2%46.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0072.3%71.3%76.6%59.2%46.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0072.3%71.3%76.6%59.2%46.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0072.3%71.3%76.6%59.2%46.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:0072.4%71.3%76.6%59.2%46.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 277%79.2°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single72%78.9°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble71%77.3°F3.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES59%77.0°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend54%76.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON46%74.5°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261027-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 76°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗