KBNA / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

39%

29%

27%

16%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 27.9¢Risks 27.90u

EPSNO 72.1¢Risks 72.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +72.10u · EPS −72.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	24.0%	—	17.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	29.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	1.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	20.2%	—	10.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	13.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	9.3%	—	10.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	14.7%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	3.6%	4.5%	15.1%	13.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	1.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	40%	79.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	39%	78.9°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	77.0°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	74.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	21%	76.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	77.3°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261027-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗