KBOI / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 14 · 07:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

77%

49%

38%

13%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.5¢Risks 45.45u

ICONNO 54.5¢Risks 54.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.55u · ICON −54.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T07:11:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-09T03:06:43+00:00	71.8%	36.6%	58.9%	31.5%	48.8%
2026-09-09T03:51:48+00:00	71.8%	36.6%	58.9%	31.5%	48.8%
2026-09-09T04:36:53+00:00	71.8%	36.6%	58.9%	31.5%	48.8%
2026-09-09T05:21:58+00:00	71.8%	36.6%	62.3%	31.5%	48.8%
2026-09-09T06:07:04+00:00	71.8%	36.6%	62.3%	31.5%	48.8%
2026-09-09T06:52:08+00:00	71.8%	36.6%	62.3%	31.5%	48.8%
2026-09-09T07:37:26+00:00	75.7%	36.6%	62.3%	31.1%	44.4%
2026-09-09T08:22:31+00:00	75.7%	36.6%	62.3%	31.1%	44.4%
2026-09-09T09:07:35+00:00	75.7%	36.6%	62.3%	31.1%	44.4%
2026-09-09T09:52:40+00:00	75.7%	36.6%	62.3%	31.1%	44.4%
2026-09-09T10:37:44+00:00	75.7%	36.6%	62.3%	31.1%	44.4%
2026-09-09T11:22:50+00:00	75.7%	36.6%	63.3%	31.1%	44.4%
2026-09-09T12:07:56+00:00	75.7%	36.6%	63.3%	31.1%	44.4%
2026-09-09T12:53:01+00:00	75.7%	36.6%	63.3%	31.1%	44.4%
2026-09-09T13:38:07+00:00	76.3%	36.6%	63.3%	31.1%	44.4%
2026-09-09T14:23:22+00:00	76.3%	36.6%	63.3%	31.0%	44.4%
2026-09-12T15:20:17+00:00	76.7%	54.9%	72.6%	42.4%	24.8%
2026-09-12T16:05:24+00:00	76.7%	54.9%	72.6%	42.4%	24.8%
2026-09-12T16:50:29+00:00	76.7%	54.9%	72.6%	42.4%	24.8%
2026-09-12T17:35:36+00:00	76.7%	54.9%	69.7%	42.4%	24.8%
2026-09-12T18:20:43+00:00	76.7%	54.9%	69.7%	42.4%	24.8%
2026-09-12T19:05:48+00:00	76.7%	54.9%	69.7%	42.4%	24.8%
2026-09-12T19:50:54+00:00	75.9%	54.9%	69.7%	42.4%	18.2%
2026-09-12T20:35:59+00:00	75.9%	54.9%	69.7%	42.4%	18.2%
2026-09-12T21:21:05+00:00	75.9%	54.9%	69.7%	42.4%	18.2%
2026-09-12T22:06:10+00:00	75.9%	54.9%	69.7%	42.4%	18.2%
2026-09-12T22:51:16+00:00	75.9%	54.9%	69.7%	38.6%	18.2%
2026-09-12T23:36:22+00:00	75.9%	54.9%	66.6%	38.6%	18.2%
2026-09-13T00:21:28+00:00	75.9%	54.9%	66.6%	38.6%	18.2%
2026-09-13T01:06:35+00:00	75.9%	54.9%	66.6%	38.6%	18.2%
2026-09-13T01:51:48+00:00	73.7%	54.9%	66.6%	38.6%	18.2%
2026-09-13T02:36:55+00:00	73.7%	54.9%	66.6%	38.6%	18.2%
2026-09-13T03:22:00+00:00	73.7%	54.9%	66.6%	38.6%	18.2%
2026-09-13T04:07:13+00:00	73.7%	54.9%	66.6%	38.6%	18.2%
2026-09-13T04:52:20+00:00	73.7%	54.9%	66.6%	38.6%	18.2%
2026-09-13T05:37:26+00:00	73.7%	54.9%	66.6%	38.6%	18.2%
2026-09-13T06:22:34+00:00	73.7%	54.9%	66.6%	38.6%	18.2%
2026-09-13T07:07:39+00:00	73.7%	54.9%	66.6%	38.6%	18.2%
2026-09-13T07:53:04+00:00	75.8%	54.9%	66.6%	38.5%	12.9%
2026-09-13T08:38:14+00:00	75.8%	54.9%	66.6%	38.5%	12.9%
2026-09-13T09:23:19+00:00	75.8%	54.9%	66.6%	38.5%	12.9%
2026-09-13T10:08:24+00:00	75.8%	54.9%	66.6%	38.5%	12.9%
2026-09-13T10:53:35+00:00	75.8%	50.0%	76.1%	38.5%	12.9%
2026-09-13T11:38:41+00:00	75.8%	50.0%	76.1%	38.5%	12.9%
2026-09-13T12:23:46+00:00	75.8%	50.0%	76.1%	38.5%	12.9%
2026-09-13T13:08:51+00:00	75.8%	50.0%	76.1%	38.5%	12.9%
2026-09-13T13:53:57+00:00	76.6%	50.0%	76.1%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-13T14:39:27+00:00	76.6%	50.0%	76.1%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-13T15:24:33+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	76.1%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-13T16:09:38+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	76.1%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-13T16:54:46+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	76.1%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-13T17:39:54+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	76.1%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-13T18:25:01+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	76.1%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-13T19:10:06+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	76.1%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-13T19:55:12+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	76.1%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-13T20:40:17+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	76.1%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-13T21:25:21+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	76.1%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-13T22:10:26+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	76.1%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-13T22:55:31+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	71.3%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-13T23:40:36+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	71.3%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-14T00:25:41+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	71.3%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-14T01:10:49+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	71.3%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-14T01:55:54+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	71.3%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-14T02:40:59+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	71.3%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-14T03:26:04+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	71.3%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-14T04:11:17+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	71.3%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-14T04:56:24+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	77.9%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-14T05:41:29+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	77.9%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-14T06:26:36+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	77.9%	38.5%	13.0%
2026-09-14T07:11:40+00:00	76.6%	49.0%	77.9%	38.5%	13.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	73.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-13 18:00	0.6068
AIFS Single	77%	73.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 18:00	0.5868
NWS forecast	57%	71.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-14 03:00	0.3260
IFS Ensemble	49%	70.4°F	4.0°F	2026-09-13 00:00	0.2401
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-14 00:00	0.1689
IFS HRES	38%	69.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-13 12:00	0.1482
ICON	13%	66.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	0.0169

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260914-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 09 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗