KBOI / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 14 · 07:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

77%

49%

38%

13%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.5¢Risks 45.45u

ICONNO 54.5¢Risks 54.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.55u · ICON −54.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	96.0%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	93.7%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	83.6%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	91.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	97.7%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	96.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	38.2%	—	—	91.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	96.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	71.2%	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	59.7%	2.9%	—	68.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	70.9%	86.5%	—	69.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	3.0%	71.7%	34.4%	—	48.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	28.1%	63.3%	57.1%	—	49.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	68.8%	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	26.5%	68.5%	60.7%	—	49.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	2.8%	54.3%	—	—	52.6%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	37.9%	54.4%	39.6%	—	52.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	35.9%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	33.0%	54.6%	64.4%	65.3%	54.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	26.9%	57.5%	—	—	51.9%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	32.1%	52.9%	62.4%	—	52.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	36.3%	49.0%	—	—	39.1%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	35.9%	46.9%	59.2%	—	54.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	31.6%	55.3%	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	30.1%	48.9%	39.2%	—	51.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	23.1%	46.6%	0.0%	—	48.9%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	21.5%	45.4%	43.0%	26.0%	48.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	18.3%	40.5%	45.2%	—	42.8%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	20.8%	40.1%	27.6%	28.7%	40.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	12.8%	34.9%	38.5%	—	42.3%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.8%	13.4%	33.1%	36.8%	28.4%	44.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	14.7%	36.3%	31.2%	—	40.3%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	13.8%	31.8%	30.5%	22.2%	34.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	12.0%	38.1%	28.5%	—	33.8%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	8.9%	34.6%	30.3%	15.2%	29.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	10.7%	19.2%	18.1%	—	25.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	73.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-13 18:00	0.6068
AIFS Single	77%	73.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 18:00	0.5868
NWS forecast	57%	71.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-14 03:00	0.3260
IFS Ensemble	49%	70.4°F	4.0°F	2026-09-13 00:00	0.2401
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-14 00:00	0.1689
IFS HRES	38%	69.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-13 12:00	0.1482
ICON	13%	66.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	0.0169

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260914-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 09 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗