KBOI / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 81°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 17 · 02:12 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

76%

75%

63%

60%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 68.7¢Risks 34.35u

EPSNO 31.3¢Risks 15.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +15.65u · EPS −15.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	2.8%	—	—	36.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	21.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	51.3%	—	—	37.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	73.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	—	—	—	78.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	92.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	72.0%	93.5%	0.1%	—	66.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	77.4%	10.6%	96.5%	29.7%	—	76.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	87.1%	88.2%	96.1%	61.3%	—	91.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	97.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	80.5%	99.1%	48.4%	—	91.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	92.0%	82.2%	98.8%	70.0%	—	93.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	10.7%	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	63.7%	89.9%	55.2%	—	89.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	87.0%	90.4%	—	—	85.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	45.4%	71.8%	37.3%	—	80.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	79.7%	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	78.2%	72.9%	64.3%	—	80.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	84.2%	63.7%	—	—	81.7%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	89.7%	81.0%	60.2%	—	88.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	92.8%	83.1%	—	—	86.2%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	92.3%	95.3%	57.6%	0.0%	90.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	91.3%	97.9%	0.0%	—	86.5%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	85.3%	96.2%	84.0%	—	90.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	88.0%	93.4%	67.5%	—	89.8%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	90.0%	90.0%	82.6%	93.3%	90.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	89.1%	89.1%	94.7%	—	93.2%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	85.9%	93.5%	89.9%	90.5%	83.5%	88.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	93.3%	89.6%	93.3%	—	90.2%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	92.2%	87.8%	88.5%	89.2%	94.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	91.4%	89.5%	88.8%	93.5%	—	94.4%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	89.8%	83.9%	92.3%	95.6%	91.7%	92.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	83.0%	96.3%	98.3%	—	95.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	78%	87.9°F	9.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	0.0506
WeatherNext 2	76%	83.9°F	4.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	0.0566
IFS HRES	75%	84.6°F	6.2°F	2026-09-16 12:00	0.0645
AIFS Single	63%	82.3°F	5.5°F	2026-09-16 18:00	0.1391
IFS Ensemble	60%	82.1°F	6.4°F	2026-09-16 00:00	0.1608
National Blend	52%	81.0°F	8.7°F	2026-09-16 06:00	0.2275

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260923-TMAX-GE81
Opened Sep 16 · 23:11 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 81°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗