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KBOI / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 81°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 17 · 02:12 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
78%
WN2
76%
HRES
75%
AIFS
63%
EPS
60%
Consensus
71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 68.7¢Risks 34.35u
VS
EPSNO 31.3¢Risks 15.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +15.65u · EPS −15.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 98.3% · 2026-09-16T23:11:23+00:00AIFS Single: 98.3% · 2026-09-16T23:56:30+00:00AIFS Single: 98.3% · 2026-09-17T00:41:35+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-09-17T01:26:56+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-09-17T02:12:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-09-16T23:11:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-09-16T23:56:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-09-17T00:41:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-09-17T01:26:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-09-17T02:12:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-09-16T23:11:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-09-16T23:56:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-09-17T00:41:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-09-17T01:26:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-09-17T02:12:09+00:00IFS HRES: 74.6% · 2026-09-16T23:11:23+00:00IFS HRES: 74.6% · 2026-09-16T23:56:30+00:00IFS HRES: 74.6% · 2026-09-17T00:41:35+00:00IFS HRES: 74.6% · 2026-09-17T01:26:56+00:00IFS HRES: 74.6% · 2026-09-17T02:12:09+00:00ICON: 77.5% · 2026-09-16T23:11:23+00:00ICON: 77.5% · 2026-09-16T23:56:30+00:00ICON: 77.5% · 2026-09-17T00:41:35+00:00ICON: 77.5% · 2026-09-17T01:26:56+00:00ICON: 77.5% · 2026-09-17T02:12:09+00:0009-16 23:1109-17 00:4109-17 02:12
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-17T02:12:09+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-16T23:11:23+00:0098.3%59.9%76.2%74.6%77.5%
2026-09-16T23:56:30+00:0098.3%59.9%76.2%74.6%77.5%
2026-09-17T00:41:35+00:0098.3%59.9%76.2%74.6%77.5%
2026-09-17T01:26:56+00:0062.7%59.9%76.2%74.6%77.5%
2026-09-17T02:12:09+00:0062.7%59.9%76.2%74.6%77.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON78%87.9°F9.8°F2026-09-16 12:000.0506
WeatherNext 276%83.9°F4.8°F2026-09-16 12:000.0566
IFS HRES75%84.6°F6.2°F2026-09-16 12:000.0645
AIFS Single63%82.3°F5.5°F2026-09-16 18:000.1391
IFS Ensemble60%82.1°F6.4°F2026-09-16 00:000.1608
National Blend52%81.0°F8.7°F2026-09-16 06:000.2275

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260923-TMAX-GE81
Opened Sep 16 · 23:11 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 81°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗