KBOI / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 18 · 14:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

83%

79%

74%

70%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 83.4¢Risks 83.40u

WN2NO 16.6¢Risks 16.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +16.60u · WN2 −16.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	2.0%	—	—	30.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	45.0%	—	—	31.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	—	—	—	72.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	65.7%	91.0%	0.0%	—	59.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	7.6%	94.9%	23.7%	—	70.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	82.6%	84.0%	94.2%	53.8%	—	88.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	84.6%	74.5%	98.5%	40.5%	—	88.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	76.2%	98.0%	62.3%	—	90.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	7.2%	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	82.2%	55.2%	85.4%	46.5%	—	84.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	81.6%	86.0%	—	—	79.1%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	36.4%	63.6%	28.9%	—	73.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	72.4%	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	70.4%	64.3%	54.9%	—	72.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	77.4%	54.0%	—	—	74.3%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	84.3%	73.2%	50.0%	—	83.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	88.4%	75.5%	—	—	79.5%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	87.5%	91.9%	46.7%	0.0%	84.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	85.9%	96.0%	0.0%	—	79.4%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	77.6%	93.2%	75.8%	—	84.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	69.6%	80.9%	88.6%	56.0%	—	83.3%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	83.4%	83.4%	73.4%	88.2%	83.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	81.8%	81.8%	90.2%	—	87.8%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	88.0%	82.7%	83.5%	73.9%	80.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	87.5%	81.8%	87.5%	—	82.7%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	85.4%	78.8%	79.8%	80.9%	88.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	80.8%	79.8%	87.2%	—	88.8%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	72.4%	84.8%	90.4%	83.9%	84.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	84.0%	70.5%	91.4%	95.5%	—	90.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	90.9°F	5.0°F	2026-09-18 06:00	0.0008
ICON	83%	87.1°F	5.9°F	2026-09-18 00:00	0.0289
IFS HRES	79%	86.2°F	5.8°F	2026-09-18 00:00	0.0441
IFS Ensemble	74%	84.3°F	4.4°F	2026-09-18 00:00	0.0686
WeatherNext 2	70%	83.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.0918
National Blend	65%	84.0°F	6.5°F	2026-09-18 06:00	0.1232
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-18 02:00	0.2125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260923-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 82°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗