KBOI / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 18 · 14:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

83%

79%

74%

70%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 83.4¢Risks 83.40u

WN2NO 16.6¢Risks 16.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +16.60u · WN2 −16.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T14:21:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-17T02:57:25+00:00	55.7%	53.7%	69.3%	69.1%	74.4%
2026-09-17T03:42:36+00:00	55.7%	53.7%	69.3%	69.1%	74.4%
2026-09-17T04:27:42+00:00	55.7%	53.7%	69.3%	69.1%	24.9%
2026-09-17T05:12:50+00:00	55.7%	53.7%	63.1%	69.1%	24.9%
2026-09-17T05:57:55+00:00	55.7%	53.7%	63.1%	69.1%	24.9%
2026-09-17T06:43:02+00:00	55.7%	53.7%	63.1%	69.1%	24.9%
2026-09-17T07:28:08+00:00	89.9%	53.7%	63.1%	69.1%	24.9%
2026-09-17T08:13:12+00:00	89.9%	53.7%	63.1%	69.1%	24.9%
2026-09-17T08:58:19+00:00	89.9%	53.7%	63.1%	69.1%	24.9%
2026-09-17T09:43:25+00:00	89.9%	53.7%	63.1%	69.1%	24.9%
2026-09-17T10:28:53+00:00	89.9%	53.7%	63.1%	68.5%	24.9%
2026-09-17T11:14:09+00:00	89.9%	51.4%	72.0%	68.5%	24.9%
2026-09-17T11:59:14+00:00	89.9%	51.4%	72.0%	68.5%	24.9%
2026-09-17T12:44:19+00:00	89.9%	51.4%	72.0%	68.5%	24.9%
2026-09-17T13:29:24+00:00	94.6%	51.4%	72.0%	68.5%	24.9%
2026-09-17T14:15:38+00:00	94.7%	51.4%	72.0%	68.5%	24.9%
2026-09-18T03:02:57+00:00	92.3%	52.8%	69.7%	77.5%	89.2%
2026-09-18T03:48:05+00:00	92.3%	52.8%	69.7%	77.5%	89.2%
2026-09-18T04:33:10+00:00	92.3%	52.8%	69.7%	77.5%	83.0%
2026-09-18T05:18:16+00:00	92.3%	52.8%	69.7%	77.5%	83.0%
2026-09-18T06:03:20+00:00	92.3%	52.8%	69.7%	77.5%	83.0%
2026-09-18T06:48:28+00:00	92.3%	52.8%	69.7%	77.5%	83.0%
2026-09-18T07:33:57+00:00	96.2%	52.8%	69.7%	79.0%	83.0%
2026-09-18T08:19:09+00:00	96.2%	52.8%	69.7%	79.0%	83.0%
2026-09-18T09:04:17+00:00	96.2%	52.8%	69.7%	79.0%	83.0%
2026-09-18T09:49:21+00:00	96.2%	52.8%	69.7%	79.0%	83.0%
2026-09-18T10:34:52+00:00	96.2%	52.8%	69.7%	79.0%	83.0%
2026-09-18T11:20:10+00:00	96.2%	73.8%	69.7%	79.0%	83.0%
2026-09-18T12:05:16+00:00	96.2%	73.8%	69.7%	79.0%	83.0%
2026-09-18T12:50:21+00:00	96.2%	73.8%	69.7%	79.0%	83.0%
2026-09-18T13:35:28+00:00	97.1%	73.8%	69.7%	79.0%	83.0%
2026-09-18T14:21:57+00:00	97.1%	73.8%	69.7%	79.0%	83.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	90.9°F	5.0°F	2026-09-18 06:00	0.0008
ICON	83%	87.1°F	5.9°F	2026-09-18 00:00	0.0289
IFS HRES	79%	86.2°F	5.8°F	2026-09-18 00:00	0.0441
IFS Ensemble	74%	84.3°F	4.4°F	2026-09-18 00:00	0.0686
WeatherNext 2	70%	83.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.0918
National Blend	65%	84.0°F	6.5°F	2026-09-18 06:00	0.1232
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-18 02:00	0.2125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260923-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 82°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗