KBOI / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 21 · 14:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

68%

54%

53%

38%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 58.9¢Risks 58.85u

EPSNO 41.1¢Risks 41.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.15u · EPS −41.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T14:40:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-17T15:00:56+00:00	89.2%	38.8%	55.3%	57.2%	16.6%
2026-09-17T15:46:04+00:00	89.2%	38.8%	55.3%	57.2%	16.6%
2026-09-17T16:31:16+00:00	89.2%	38.8%	55.3%	57.2%	82.7%
2026-09-17T17:16:22+00:00	89.2%	38.8%	57.1%	57.2%	82.7%
2026-09-17T18:01:26+00:00	89.2%	38.8%	57.1%	57.2%	82.7%
2026-09-17T18:46:35+00:00	89.2%	38.8%	57.1%	57.2%	82.7%
2026-09-17T19:31:41+00:00	89.6%	38.8%	57.1%	57.2%	82.7%
2026-09-17T20:16:46+00:00	89.6%	38.8%	57.1%	57.2%	82.7%
2026-09-17T21:01:51+00:00	89.6%	38.8%	57.1%	57.2%	82.7%
2026-09-17T21:46:56+00:00	89.6%	38.8%	57.1%	57.2%	82.7%
2026-09-17T22:32:01+00:00	89.6%	38.8%	57.1%	67.5%	82.7%
2026-09-17T23:17:06+00:00	89.6%	38.8%	52.7%	67.5%	82.7%
2026-09-18T00:02:11+00:00	89.6%	38.8%	52.7%	67.5%	82.7%
2026-09-18T00:47:19+00:00	89.6%	38.8%	52.7%	67.5%	82.7%
2026-09-18T01:32:25+00:00	85.3%	38.8%	52.7%	67.5%	82.7%
2026-09-18T02:17:30+00:00	85.3%	38.8%	52.7%	67.5%	82.7%
2026-09-18T15:07:20+00:00	93.2%	58.1%	52.7%	67.8%	73.0%
2026-09-18T15:52:27+00:00	93.2%	58.1%	52.7%	67.8%	73.0%
2026-09-18T16:37:33+00:00	93.2%	58.1%	52.7%	67.8%	73.6%
2026-09-18T17:22:38+00:00	93.2%	58.1%	52.7%	67.8%	73.6%
2026-09-18T18:07:43+00:00	93.2%	58.1%	52.7%	67.8%	73.6%
2026-09-18T18:52:52+00:00	93.2%	58.1%	52.7%	67.8%	73.6%
2026-09-18T19:37:57+00:00	93.5%	58.1%	52.7%	67.8%	73.6%
2026-09-18T20:23:02+00:00	93.5%	58.1%	52.7%	67.8%	73.6%
2026-09-18T21:08:06+00:00	93.5%	58.1%	52.7%	67.8%	73.6%
2026-09-18T21:53:12+00:00	93.5%	58.1%	52.7%	67.8%	73.6%
2026-09-18T22:38:17+00:00	93.5%	58.1%	52.7%	80.9%	73.6%
2026-09-18T23:23:22+00:00	93.5%	58.1%	52.7%	80.9%	73.6%
2026-09-19T00:08:27+00:00	93.5%	58.1%	52.7%	80.9%	73.6%
2026-09-19T00:53:34+00:00	93.5%	58.1%	52.7%	80.9%	73.6%
2026-09-19T01:38:40+00:00	88.7%	58.1%	52.7%	80.9%	73.6%
2026-09-19T02:23:45+00:00	88.7%	58.1%	52.7%	80.9%	73.6%
2026-09-21T03:20:54+00:00	72.3%	34.6%	52.7%	62.2%	73.1%
2026-09-21T04:06:03+00:00	72.3%	34.6%	52.7%	62.2%	73.1%
2026-09-21T04:51:13+00:00	72.3%	34.6%	52.7%	62.2%	68.5%
2026-09-21T05:36:20+00:00	72.3%	34.6%	52.7%	62.2%	68.5%
2026-09-21T06:21:25+00:00	72.3%	34.6%	52.7%	62.2%	68.5%
2026-09-21T07:06:33+00:00	72.3%	34.6%	52.7%	62.2%	68.5%
2026-09-21T07:51:38+00:00	77.0%	34.6%	52.7%	62.2%	68.5%
2026-09-21T08:36:43+00:00	77.0%	34.6%	52.7%	62.2%	68.5%
2026-09-21T09:21:47+00:00	77.0%	34.6%	52.7%	62.2%	68.5%
2026-09-21T10:06:52+00:00	77.0%	34.6%	52.7%	62.2%	68.5%
2026-09-21T10:52:29+00:00	77.0%	34.6%	52.7%	53.9%	68.5%
2026-09-21T11:37:57+00:00	77.0%	37.8%	52.7%	53.9%	68.5%
2026-09-21T12:23:03+00:00	77.0%	37.8%	52.7%	53.9%	68.5%
2026-09-21T13:08:08+00:00	77.0%	37.8%	52.7%	53.9%	68.5%
2026-09-21T13:53:16+00:00	79.8%	37.9%	52.7%	53.9%	68.5%
2026-09-21T14:40:21+00:00	79.8%	37.9%	52.7%	53.9%	68.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	88%	86.0°F	2.1°F	2026-09-21 06:00	0.0144
AIFS Single	80%	87.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-21 06:00	0.0408
ICON	68%	85.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.0992
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-21 02:00	0.1954
IFS HRES	54%	83.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.2125
WeatherNext 2	53%	83.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.2237
IFS Ensemble	38%	82.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.3856

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260923-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 17 · 15:00 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 84°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗