KBOI / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 21 · 14:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

68%

54%

53%

38%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 58.9¢Risks 58.85u

EPSNO 41.1¢Risks 41.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.15u · EPS −41.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.9%	—	—	21.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	33.0%	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	55.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	60.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	82.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	80.6%	52.1%	83.8%	0.0%	—	45.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	3.6%	89.7%	14.0%	—	57.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	73.0%	88.2%	38.7%	—	78.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	60.3%	96.2%	26.1%	—	78.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	61.5%	94.9%	45.8%	—	81.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	3.0%	89.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	37.9%	73.1%	29.9%	—	71.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	43.7%	67.4%	73.6%	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	20.9%	45.4%	15.4%	—	56.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	54.7%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	51.9%	45.1%	35.7%	—	54.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	59.9%	34.4%	—	—	56.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	51.0%	68.8%	54.1%	30.3%	—	67.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	74.7%	56.3%	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	72.7%	80.2%	26.4%	0.0%	67.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	69.5%	88.2%	0.0%	—	60.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	57.0%	81.7%	54.6%	—	66.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	60.7%	72.7%	32.5%	—	64.1%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	63.4%	63.4%	50.0%	71.3%	63.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	60.2%	60.2%	74.1%	—	69.8%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	69.3%	60.6%	61.9%	48.7%	58.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	67.5%	58.3%	67.5%	—	59.7%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	62.8%	52.9%	54.3%	55.8%	68.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	54.5%	53.0%	64.8%	—	67.5%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	42.1%	59.4%	69.7%	57.9%	59.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	38.6%	70.5%	80.8%	—	69.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	88%	86.0°F	2.1°F	2026-09-21 06:00	0.0144
AIFS Single	80%	87.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-21 06:00	0.0408
ICON	68%	85.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.0992
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-21 02:00	0.1954
IFS HRES	54%	83.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.2125
WeatherNext 2	53%	83.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.2237
IFS Ensemble	38%	82.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.3856

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260923-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 17 · 15:00 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 84°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗