KBOI / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 87°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 21 · 14:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

36%

27%

26%

15%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.1¢Risks 35.05u

EPSNO 65.0¢Risks 64.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.95u · EPS −64.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.3%	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	18.1%	—	—	10.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	40.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	31.7%	67.7%	0.0%	—	26.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	78.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	0.9%	76.3%	5.1%	—	35.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	51.5%	73.0%	19.5%	—	59.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	36.7%	88.1%	10.8%	—	57.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	36.9%	84.3%	23.2%	—	60.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	0.6%	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	16.7%	48.2%	11.8%	—	46.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	41.1%	48.2%	—	—	37.6%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	6.6%	20.9%	4.3%	—	29.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	27.6%	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	24.7%	19.7%	13.6%	—	27.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	30.8%	12.4%	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	38.8%	25.1%	9.8%	—	36.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	44.7%	26.2%	—	—	30.7%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	41.3%	51.1%	7.3%	0.0%	36.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	36.7%	63.3%	0.0%	—	27.6%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	24.2%	51.2%	22.4%	—	33.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	26.3%	38.1%	8.7%	—	29.3%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	27.6%	27.6%	17.4%	35.4%	27.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	23.8%	23.8%	37.3%	—	32.5%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	30.7%	23.0%	24.0%	14.9%	21.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	27.6%	20.1%	27.6%	—	21.1%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	22.2%	15.4%	16.3%	17.2%	26.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	15.3%	14.4%	22.4%	—	24.8%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	8.3%	17.1%	25.0%	16.1%	17.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	6.3%	24.1%	35.5%	—	22.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	55%	87.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-21 06:00	0.2052
National Blend	41%	86.0°F	2.1°F	2026-09-21 06:00	0.3516
ICON	36%	85.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.4147
WeatherNext 2	27%	83.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.5271
IFS HRES	26%	83.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.5417
NWS forecast	23%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-21 02:00	0.5883
IFS Ensemble	15%	82.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.7157

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260923-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 16 · 07:22 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗