KBOI / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 87°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 21 · 14:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

36%

27%

26%

15%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.1¢Risks 35.05u

EPSNO 65.0¢Risks 64.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.95u · EPS −64.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T14:40:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-16T07:22:20+00:00	86.0%	27.8%	14.9%	48.7%	1.1%
2026-09-16T08:07:35+00:00	86.0%	27.8%	14.9%	48.7%	1.1%
2026-09-16T08:52:42+00:00	86.0%	27.8%	14.9%	48.7%	1.1%
2026-09-16T09:37:55+00:00	86.0%	27.8%	14.9%	48.7%	1.1%
2026-09-16T10:23:02+00:00	86.0%	27.8%	14.9%	48.7%	1.1%
2026-09-16T11:08:11+00:00	86.0%	25.1%	18.9%	48.7%	1.1%
2026-09-16T11:53:18+00:00	86.0%	25.1%	18.9%	48.7%	1.1%
2026-09-16T12:38:23+00:00	86.0%	25.1%	18.9%	48.7%	1.1%
2026-09-16T13:23:29+00:00	86.4%	25.1%	18.9%	48.7%	1.1%
2026-09-16T14:09:49+00:00	86.4%	25.1%	18.9%	48.7%	1.1%
2026-09-16T14:55:01+00:00	86.4%	24.6%	18.9%	48.7%	1.1%
2026-09-16T15:40:10+00:00	86.4%	24.6%	18.9%	48.7%	1.1%
2026-09-16T16:25:16+00:00	86.4%	24.6%	18.9%	49.0%	55.7%
2026-09-16T17:10:29+00:00	86.4%	24.6%	24.5%	49.0%	55.7%
2026-09-16T17:55:38+00:00	86.4%	24.6%	24.5%	49.0%	55.7%
2026-09-16T18:40:47+00:00	86.4%	24.6%	24.5%	49.0%	55.7%
2026-09-16T19:25:53+00:00	84.4%	24.6%	24.5%	40.8%	55.7%
2026-09-16T20:10:58+00:00	84.4%	24.6%	24.5%	40.8%	55.7%
2026-09-16T20:56:03+00:00	84.4%	24.6%	24.5%	40.8%	55.7%
2026-09-16T21:41:08+00:00	84.4%	24.6%	24.5%	40.8%	55.7%
2026-09-16T22:26:12+00:00	84.4%	24.6%	24.5%	40.8%	55.7%
2026-09-16T23:11:23+00:00	84.8%	24.6%	29.3%	38.0%	55.7%
2026-09-16T23:56:30+00:00	84.8%	24.6%	29.3%	38.0%	55.7%
2026-09-17T00:41:35+00:00	84.8%	24.6%	29.3%	38.0%	55.7%
2026-09-17T01:26:56+00:00	22.4%	24.6%	29.3%	38.0%	55.7%
2026-09-17T02:12:09+00:00	22.4%	24.6%	29.3%	38.0%	55.7%
2026-09-17T02:57:25+00:00	22.4%	24.6%	29.3%	38.0%	55.7%
2026-09-17T03:42:36+00:00	22.4%	24.6%	29.3%	38.0%	55.7%
2026-09-17T04:27:42+00:00	22.4%	24.6%	29.3%	38.0%	7.9%
2026-09-17T05:12:50+00:00	22.4%	24.6%	23.8%	38.0%	7.9%
2026-09-17T05:57:55+00:00	22.4%	24.6%	23.8%	38.0%	7.9%
2026-09-17T06:43:02+00:00	22.4%	24.6%	23.8%	38.0%	7.9%
2026-09-17T07:28:08+00:00	63.2%	24.6%	23.8%	38.0%	7.9%
2026-09-17T08:13:12+00:00	63.2%	24.6%	23.8%	38.0%	7.9%
2026-09-17T08:58:19+00:00	63.2%	24.6%	23.8%	38.0%	7.9%
2026-09-17T09:43:25+00:00	63.2%	24.6%	23.8%	38.0%	7.9%
2026-09-17T10:28:53+00:00	63.2%	24.6%	23.8%	39.3%	7.9%
2026-09-17T11:14:09+00:00	63.2%	20.1%	29.6%	39.3%	7.9%
2026-09-17T11:59:14+00:00	63.2%	20.1%	29.6%	39.3%	7.9%
2026-09-17T12:44:19+00:00	63.2%	20.1%	29.6%	39.3%	7.9%
2026-09-17T13:29:24+00:00	75.0%	20.1%	29.6%	39.3%	7.9%
2026-09-17T14:15:38+00:00	75.0%	20.1%	29.6%	39.3%	7.9%
2026-09-17T15:00:56+00:00	75.0%	20.7%	29.6%	39.3%	7.9%
2026-09-17T15:46:04+00:00	75.0%	20.7%	29.6%	39.3%	7.9%
2026-09-17T16:31:16+00:00	75.0%	20.7%	29.6%	39.3%	69.1%
2026-09-17T17:16:22+00:00	75.0%	20.7%	31.1%	39.3%	69.1%
2026-09-17T18:01:26+00:00	75.0%	20.7%	31.1%	39.3%	69.1%
2026-09-17T18:46:35+00:00	75.0%	20.7%	31.1%	39.3%	69.1%
2026-09-17T19:31:41+00:00	75.6%	20.7%	31.1%	39.3%	69.1%
2026-09-17T20:16:46+00:00	75.6%	20.7%	31.1%	39.3%	69.1%
2026-09-17T21:01:51+00:00	75.6%	20.7%	31.1%	39.3%	69.1%
2026-09-17T21:46:56+00:00	75.6%	20.7%	31.1%	39.3%	69.1%
2026-09-17T22:32:01+00:00	75.6%	20.7%	31.1%	50.0%	69.1%
2026-09-17T23:17:06+00:00	75.6%	20.7%	27.3%	50.0%	69.1%
2026-09-18T00:02:11+00:00	75.6%	20.7%	27.3%	50.0%	69.1%
2026-09-18T00:47:19+00:00	75.6%	20.7%	27.3%	50.0%	69.1%
2026-09-18T01:32:25+00:00	68.7%	20.7%	27.3%	50.0%	69.1%
2026-09-18T02:17:30+00:00	68.7%	20.7%	27.3%	50.0%	69.1%
2026-09-18T03:02:57+00:00	68.7%	20.7%	27.3%	50.0%	69.1%
2026-09-18T03:48:05+00:00	68.7%	20.7%	27.3%	50.0%	69.1%
2026-09-18T04:33:10+00:00	68.7%	20.7%	27.3%	50.0%	54.1%
2026-09-18T05:18:16+00:00	68.7%	20.7%	27.3%	50.0%	54.1%
2026-09-18T06:03:20+00:00	68.7%	20.7%	27.3%	50.0%	54.1%
2026-09-18T06:48:28+00:00	68.7%	20.7%	27.3%	50.0%	54.1%
2026-09-18T07:33:57+00:00	77.8%	20.7%	27.3%	48.0%	54.1%
2026-09-18T08:19:09+00:00	77.8%	20.7%	27.3%	48.0%	54.1%
2026-09-18T09:04:17+00:00	77.8%	20.7%	27.3%	48.0%	54.1%
2026-09-18T09:49:21+00:00	77.8%	20.7%	27.3%	48.0%	54.1%
2026-09-18T10:34:52+00:00	77.8%	20.7%	27.3%	48.0%	54.1%
2026-09-18T11:20:10+00:00	77.8%	30.9%	27.3%	48.0%	54.1%
2026-09-18T12:05:16+00:00	77.8%	30.9%	27.3%	48.0%	54.1%
2026-09-18T12:50:21+00:00	77.8%	30.9%	27.3%	48.0%	54.1%
2026-09-18T13:35:28+00:00	81.2%	30.9%	27.3%	48.0%	54.1%
2026-09-18T14:21:57+00:00	81.2%	30.9%	27.3%	48.0%	54.1%
2026-09-18T15:07:20+00:00	81.2%	31.7%	27.3%	48.0%	54.1%
2026-09-18T15:52:27+00:00	81.2%	31.7%	27.3%	48.0%	54.1%
2026-09-18T16:37:33+00:00	81.2%	31.7%	27.3%	48.0%	54.7%
2026-09-18T17:22:38+00:00	81.2%	31.7%	27.3%	48.0%	54.7%
2026-09-18T18:07:43+00:00	81.2%	31.7%	27.3%	48.0%	54.7%
2026-09-18T18:52:52+00:00	81.2%	31.7%	27.3%	48.0%	54.7%
2026-09-18T19:37:57+00:00	81.8%	31.7%	27.3%	48.0%	54.7%
2026-09-18T20:23:02+00:00	81.8%	31.7%	27.3%	48.0%	54.7%
2026-09-18T21:08:06+00:00	81.8%	31.7%	27.3%	48.0%	54.7%
2026-09-18T21:53:12+00:00	81.8%	31.7%	27.3%	48.0%	54.7%
2026-09-18T22:38:17+00:00	81.8%	31.7%	27.3%	64.0%	54.7%
2026-09-18T23:23:22+00:00	81.8%	31.7%	27.3%	64.0%	54.7%
2026-09-19T00:08:27+00:00	81.8%	31.7%	27.3%	64.0%	54.7%
2026-09-19T00:53:34+00:00	81.8%	31.7%	27.3%	64.0%	54.7%
2026-09-19T01:38:40+00:00	72.7%	31.7%	27.3%	64.0%	54.7%
2026-09-19T02:23:45+00:00	72.7%	31.7%	27.3%	64.0%	54.7%
2026-09-21T03:20:54+00:00	46.4%	11.8%	27.4%	36.2%	43.9%
2026-09-21T04:06:03+00:00	46.4%	11.8%	27.4%	36.2%	43.9%
2026-09-21T04:51:13+00:00	46.4%	11.8%	27.4%	36.2%	35.6%
2026-09-21T05:36:20+00:00	46.4%	11.8%	27.4%	36.2%	35.6%
2026-09-21T06:21:25+00:00	46.4%	11.8%	27.4%	36.2%	35.6%
2026-09-21T07:06:33+00:00	46.4%	11.8%	27.4%	36.2%	35.6%
2026-09-21T07:51:38+00:00	50.9%	11.8%	27.4%	36.2%	35.6%
2026-09-21T08:36:43+00:00	50.9%	11.8%	27.4%	36.2%	35.6%
2026-09-21T09:21:47+00:00	50.9%	11.8%	27.4%	36.2%	35.6%
2026-09-21T10:06:52+00:00	50.9%	11.8%	27.4%	36.2%	35.6%
2026-09-21T10:52:29+00:00	50.9%	11.8%	27.4%	26.4%	35.6%
2026-09-21T11:37:57+00:00	50.9%	15.2%	27.4%	26.4%	35.6%
2026-09-21T12:23:03+00:00	50.9%	15.2%	27.4%	26.4%	35.6%
2026-09-21T13:08:08+00:00	50.9%	15.2%	27.4%	26.4%	35.6%
2026-09-21T13:53:16+00:00	54.7%	15.4%	27.4%	26.4%	35.6%
2026-09-21T14:40:21+00:00	54.7%	15.4%	27.4%	26.4%	35.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	55%	87.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-21 06:00	0.2052
National Blend	41%	86.0°F	2.1°F	2026-09-21 06:00	0.3516
ICON	36%	85.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.4147
WeatherNext 2	27%	83.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.5271
IFS HRES	26%	83.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.5417
NWS forecast	23%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-21 02:00	0.5883
IFS Ensemble	15%	82.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.7157

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260923-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 16 · 07:22 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗