KBOI / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 21 · 14:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

85%

66%

37%

29%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.6¢Risks 59.55u

WN2NO 40.4¢Risks 40.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.45u · WN2 −40.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	10.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	8.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	42.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	70.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	11.7%	—	—	26.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	0.0%	82.4%	—	—	52.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	60.4%	83.4%	0.0%	—	68.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	47.8%	74.0%	76.3%	—	66.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.5%	61.3%	83.5%	8.7%	—	62.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	39.0%	26.8%	69.2%	—	61.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	20.1%	41.7%	45.0%	—	67.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	3.8%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	62.1%	73.1%	11.8%	—	62.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	58.0%	75.0%	—	—	70.6%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	57.3%	82.8%	88.5%	—	71.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	61.2%	79.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	66.1%	80.3%	80.3%	62.4%	—	76.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	81.0%	85.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	71.5%	86.1%	92.6%	—	74.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	75.5%	85.0%	—	—	75.5%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	69.9%	73.6%	87.5%	91.0%	69.9%	76.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	75.1%	87.7%	0.0%	—	79.4%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	77.6%	86.0%	90.0%	65.9%	76.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	73.7%	89.2%	92.2%	—	74.7%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	78.3%	74.4%	87.6%	89.4%	0.1%	82.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	78.1%	70.9%	87.2%	91.8%	—	82.6%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	79.0%	70.5%	88.0%	90.5%	72.7%	80.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	66.2%	87.5%	89.6%	—	79.9%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	70.7%	84.6%	91.1%	75.5%	85.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	84.7%	68.9%	89.5%	91.4%	—	85.6%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	72.4%	89.8%	91.7%	76.2%	82.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	91.4%	78.5%	89.3%	91.4%	—	88.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	94.2°F	4.4°F	2026-09-21 06:00	0.0094
ICON	85%	92.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.0231
National Blend	68%	90.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-21 06:00	0.1050
IFS HRES	66%	90.4°F	4.5°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.1136
NWS forecast	55%	89.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-21 02:00	0.2016
IFS Ensemble	37%	87.4°F	3.2°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.4020
WeatherNext 2	29%	85.8°F	4.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.5069

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260924-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 19 · 03:09 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 89°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗