KBOI / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 21 · 14:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

85%

66%

37%

29%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.6¢Risks 59.55u

WN2NO 40.4¢Risks 40.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.45u · WN2 −40.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T14:40:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-19T03:09:07+00:00	41.1%	23.5%	28.6%	76.6%	75.5%
2026-09-19T03:54:16+00:00	41.1%	23.5%	28.6%	76.6%	75.5%
2026-09-19T04:39:21+00:00	41.1%	23.5%	28.6%	76.6%	56.1%
2026-09-19T05:24:26+00:00	41.1%	23.5%	28.6%	76.6%	56.1%
2026-09-19T06:09:30+00:00	41.1%	23.5%	28.6%	76.6%	56.1%
2026-09-19T06:54:39+00:00	41.1%	23.5%	28.6%	76.6%	56.1%
2026-09-19T07:40:11+00:00	65.7%	23.5%	28.6%	75.9%	56.1%
2026-09-19T08:25:31+00:00	65.7%	23.5%	28.6%	75.9%	56.1%
2026-09-19T09:10:38+00:00	65.7%	23.5%	28.6%	75.9%	56.1%
2026-09-19T09:55:43+00:00	65.7%	23.5%	28.6%	75.9%	56.1%
2026-09-19T10:40:48+00:00	65.7%	23.5%	28.6%	75.9%	56.1%
2026-09-19T11:25:59+00:00	65.7%	38.5%	28.6%	75.9%	56.1%
2026-09-19T12:11:06+00:00	65.7%	38.5%	28.6%	75.9%	56.1%
2026-09-19T12:56:10+00:00	65.7%	38.5%	28.6%	75.9%	56.1%
2026-09-19T13:41:17+00:00	50.0%	38.5%	28.6%	75.9%	56.1%
2026-09-19T14:27:52+00:00	50.0%	38.5%	28.6%	75.9%	56.1%
2026-09-20T15:19:00+00:00	92.2%	33.4%	28.7%	67.6%	72.2%
2026-09-20T16:04:09+00:00	92.2%	33.4%	28.7%	67.6%	72.2%
2026-09-20T16:49:15+00:00	92.2%	33.4%	28.7%	67.6%	67.8%
2026-09-20T17:34:20+00:00	92.2%	33.4%	28.7%	67.6%	67.8%
2026-09-20T18:19:24+00:00	92.2%	33.4%	28.7%	67.6%	67.8%
2026-09-20T19:04:33+00:00	92.2%	33.4%	28.7%	67.6%	67.8%
2026-09-20T19:49:38+00:00	90.5%	33.4%	28.7%	67.6%	67.8%
2026-09-20T20:34:43+00:00	90.5%	33.4%	28.7%	67.6%	67.8%
2026-09-20T21:19:47+00:00	90.5%	33.4%	28.7%	67.6%	67.8%
2026-09-20T22:04:52+00:00	90.5%	33.4%	28.7%	67.6%	67.8%
2026-09-20T22:50:02+00:00	90.5%	33.4%	28.7%	68.3%	67.8%
2026-09-20T23:35:07+00:00	90.5%	33.4%	28.7%	68.3%	67.8%
2026-09-21T00:20:16+00:00	90.5%	33.4%	28.7%	68.3%	67.8%
2026-09-21T01:05:26+00:00	90.5%	33.4%	28.7%	68.3%	67.8%
2026-09-21T01:50:32+00:00	88.5%	33.4%	28.7%	68.3%	67.8%
2026-09-21T02:35:36+00:00	88.5%	33.4%	28.7%	68.3%	67.8%
2026-09-21T03:20:54+00:00	88.5%	33.4%	28.7%	68.3%	67.8%
2026-09-21T04:06:03+00:00	88.5%	33.4%	28.7%	68.3%	67.8%
2026-09-21T04:51:13+00:00	88.5%	33.4%	28.7%	68.3%	84.8%
2026-09-21T05:36:20+00:00	88.5%	33.4%	28.7%	68.3%	84.8%
2026-09-21T06:21:25+00:00	88.5%	33.4%	28.7%	68.3%	84.8%
2026-09-21T07:06:33+00:00	88.5%	33.4%	28.7%	68.3%	84.8%
2026-09-21T07:51:38+00:00	89.0%	33.4%	28.7%	68.3%	84.8%
2026-09-21T08:36:43+00:00	89.0%	33.4%	28.7%	68.3%	84.8%
2026-09-21T09:21:47+00:00	89.0%	33.4%	28.7%	68.3%	84.8%
2026-09-21T10:06:52+00:00	89.0%	33.4%	28.7%	68.3%	84.8%
2026-09-21T10:52:29+00:00	89.0%	33.4%	28.7%	66.3%	84.8%
2026-09-21T11:37:57+00:00	89.0%	36.6%	28.7%	66.3%	84.8%
2026-09-21T12:23:03+00:00	89.0%	36.6%	28.7%	66.3%	84.8%
2026-09-21T13:08:08+00:00	89.0%	36.6%	28.7%	66.3%	84.8%
2026-09-21T13:53:16+00:00	90.3%	36.6%	28.8%	66.3%	84.8%
2026-09-21T14:40:21+00:00	90.3%	36.6%	28.8%	66.3%	84.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	94.2°F	4.4°F	2026-09-21 06:00	0.0094
ICON	85%	92.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.0231
National Blend	68%	90.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-21 06:00	0.1050
IFS HRES	66%	90.4°F	4.5°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.1136
NWS forecast	55%	89.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-21 02:00	0.2016
IFS Ensemble	37%	87.4°F	3.2°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.4020
WeatherNext 2	29%	85.8°F	4.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.5069

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260924-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 19 · 03:09 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 89°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗