KBOI / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 24 · 14:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

85%

82%

81%

52%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 75.7¢Risks 75.70u

ICONNO 24.3¢Risks 24.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.30u · ICON −24.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	81.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	77.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	50.6%	—	—	79.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	19.4%	83.3%	—	—	89.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	52.1%	20.9%	2.3%	—	78.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	55.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	95.2%	30.4%	95.2%	—	84.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	83.1%	97.9%	91.9%	89.7%	—	74.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	96.7%	78.2%	54.8%	—	65.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	75.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	28.6%	83.2%	76.8%	—	75.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	80.5%	1.0%	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	90.3%	41.3%	43.0%	94.8%	—	74.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	69.0%	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	84.5%	68.6%	95.0%	—	87.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	74.7%	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	94.4%	84.1%	97.1%	—	96.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	89.0%	82.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	89.2%	88.2%	93.9%	—	97.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	92.8%	90.8%	93.5%	—	—	97.8%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	90.1%	96.5%	97.4%	—	96.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	83.2%	95.8%	0.8%	—	96.2%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	95.8%	79.3%	95.2%	97.8%	—	96.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	64.1%	95.7%	97.1%	—	96.7%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	85.6%	96.3%	94.1%	88.8%	96.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	95.4%	89.1%	94.7%	97.8%	—	96.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	88.7%	96.3%	98.7%	0.0%	95.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	86.1%	97.3%	98.2%	—	94.2%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	83.7%	97.7%	97.5%	87.8%	96.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	88.8%	99.0%	97.3%	—	96.8%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	97.6%	89.0%	98.8%	98.2%	88.3%	96.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	89.3%	98.6%	97.9%	—	98.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	99%	79.2°F	4.6°F	2026-09-24 06:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	85%	72.6°F	3.9°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.0222
IFS Ensemble	82%	73.2°F	5.2°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.0335
IFS HRES	81%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.0346
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-24 02:00	0.2070
ICON	52%	68.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.2256
National Blend	45%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	0.2981

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260928-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 23 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 69°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗