KBOI / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 24 · 14:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

85%

82%

81%

52%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 75.7¢Risks 75.70u

ICONNO 24.3¢Risks 24.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.30u · ICON −24.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T14:16:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-23T14:54:24+00:00	89.8%	82.8%	71.6%	41.8%	97.4%
2026-09-23T15:39:33+00:00	89.8%	82.8%	71.6%	41.8%	97.4%
2026-09-23T16:24:42+00:00	89.8%	82.8%	71.6%	41.8%	46.6%
2026-09-23T17:09:52+00:00	89.8%	82.8%	79.1%	41.8%	46.6%
2026-09-23T17:54:57+00:00	89.8%	82.8%	79.1%	41.8%	46.6%
2026-09-23T18:40:03+00:00	89.8%	82.8%	79.1%	41.8%	46.6%
2026-09-23T19:25:15+00:00	91.2%	82.8%	79.1%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-09-23T20:10:21+00:00	91.2%	82.8%	79.1%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-09-23T20:55:27+00:00	91.2%	82.8%	79.1%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-09-23T21:40:32+00:00	91.2%	82.8%	79.1%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-09-23T22:25:39+00:00	91.2%	82.8%	79.1%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-09-23T23:10:45+00:00	91.2%	82.8%	82.3%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-09-23T23:55:50+00:00	91.2%	82.8%	82.3%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-09-24T00:40:57+00:00	91.2%	82.8%	82.3%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-09-24T01:26:08+00:00	94.5%	82.8%	82.3%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-09-24T02:11:14+00:00	94.5%	82.8%	82.3%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-09-24T02:56:46+00:00	94.5%	82.8%	82.3%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-09-24T03:41:56+00:00	94.5%	82.8%	82.3%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-09-24T04:27:02+00:00	94.5%	82.8%	82.3%	77.0%	52.5%
2026-09-24T05:12:08+00:00	94.5%	82.8%	83.6%	77.0%	52.5%
2026-09-24T05:57:20+00:00	94.5%	82.8%	83.6%	77.0%	52.5%
2026-09-24T06:42:28+00:00	94.5%	82.8%	83.6%	77.0%	52.5%
2026-09-24T07:28:08+00:00	98.4%	82.8%	83.6%	81.4%	52.5%
2026-09-24T08:13:32+00:00	98.4%	82.8%	83.6%	81.4%	52.5%
2026-09-24T08:58:39+00:00	98.4%	82.8%	83.6%	81.4%	52.5%
2026-09-24T09:43:43+00:00	98.4%	82.8%	83.6%	81.4%	52.5%
2026-09-24T10:28:48+00:00	98.4%	82.8%	83.6%	81.4%	52.5%
2026-09-24T11:13:54+00:00	98.4%	82.1%	85.1%	81.4%	52.5%
2026-09-24T11:58:59+00:00	98.4%	82.1%	85.1%	81.4%	52.5%
2026-09-24T12:44:04+00:00	98.4%	82.1%	85.1%	81.4%	52.5%
2026-09-24T13:29:21+00:00	98.9%	82.1%	85.1%	81.4%	52.5%
2026-09-24T14:16:43+00:00	98.9%	81.7%	85.1%	81.4%	52.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	99%	79.2°F	4.6°F	2026-09-24 06:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	85%	72.6°F	3.9°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.0222
IFS Ensemble	82%	73.2°F	5.2°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.0335
IFS HRES	81%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.0346
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-24 02:00	0.2070
ICON	52%	68.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.2256
National Blend	45%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	0.2981

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260928-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 23 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 69°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗