KBOI / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 25 · 17:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

92%

83%

79%

74%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 84.7¢Risks 84.70u

HRESNO 15.3¢Risks 15.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +15.30u · HRES −15.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	73.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	77.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	0.3%	—	—	72.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	37.8%	—	—	68.8%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	92.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	11.4%	73.5%	—	—	82.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	87.0%	38.2%	12.2%	0.9%	—	66.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	90.4%	18.9%	90.4%	—	74.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	95.0%	84.5%	81.1%	—	60.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	92.5%	64.8%	39.0%	—	50.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	16.2%	70.7%	62.3%	—	60.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	0.3%	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	25.5%	26.9%	88.2%	—	58.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	51.8%	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	71.0%	50.9%	88.1%	—	75.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	85.2%	57.5%	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	86.4%	86.4%	69.6%	92.1%	—	90.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	76.6%	66.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	76.5%	74.9%	84.9%	—	91.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	82.4%	78.7%	83.7%	—	—	93.2%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	77.0%	89.6%	91.9%	—	90.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	65.4%	87.7%	0.1%	—	88.8%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	87.3%	59.2%	86.0%	92.4%	—	88.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	40.5%	86.8%	90.3%	—	89.2%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	83.4%	66.9%	87.6%	82.6%	72.4%	88.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	72.0%	83.4%	91.3%	—	86.5%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	85.9%	70.5%	86.6%	93.9%	0.0%	85.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	65.0%	88.9%	91.9%	—	80.9%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	60.1%	89.8%	89.2%	66.9%	87.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	67.5%	94.0%	88.0%	—	86.4%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	88.3%	66.8%	92.9%	90.4%	65.4%	85.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	89.3%	66.1%	91.4%	88.5%	—	90.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	77.7°F	4.4°F	2026-09-25 06:00	0.0025
WeatherNext 2	92%	75.7°F	3.7°F	2026-09-25 06:00	0.0062
IFS Ensemble	83%	74.9°F	4.7°F	2026-09-25 00:00	0.0303
ICON	79%	73.7°F	3.9°F	2026-09-25 12:00	0.0428
IFS HRES	74%	73.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.0655
National Blend	63%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-25 06:00	0.1347
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-25 02:00	0.2016

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260928-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 21 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗