KBOI / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 25 · 17:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

92%

83%

79%

74%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 84.7¢Risks 84.70u

HRESNO 15.3¢Risks 15.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +15.30u · HRES −15.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T17:23:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-21T10:52:29+00:00	70.6%	65.7%	81.3%	85.1%	37.9%
2026-09-21T11:37:57+00:00	70.6%	70.8%	81.3%	85.1%	37.9%
2026-09-21T12:23:03+00:00	70.6%	70.8%	81.3%	85.1%	37.9%
2026-09-21T13:08:08+00:00	70.6%	70.8%	81.3%	85.1%	37.9%
2026-09-21T13:53:16+00:00	84.7%	70.8%	81.3%	84.9%	37.9%
2026-09-21T14:40:21+00:00	84.7%	70.8%	81.3%	84.9%	37.9%
2026-09-21T15:25:40+00:00	84.7%	71.1%	81.3%	84.9%	37.9%
2026-09-21T16:10:49+00:00	84.7%	71.1%	81.3%	84.9%	37.9%
2026-09-21T16:55:54+00:00	84.7%	71.1%	81.3%	84.9%	59.7%
2026-09-21T17:40:59+00:00	84.7%	71.1%	81.3%	84.9%	59.7%
2026-09-21T18:26:04+00:00	84.7%	71.1%	81.3%	84.9%	59.7%
2026-09-21T19:11:14+00:00	84.7%	71.1%	81.3%	84.9%	59.7%
2026-09-21T19:56:26+00:00	96.7%	71.1%	81.3%	66.6%	59.7%
2026-09-21T20:41:33+00:00	96.7%	71.1%	81.3%	66.6%	59.7%
2026-09-21T21:26:39+00:00	96.7%	71.1%	81.3%	66.6%	59.7%
2026-09-21T22:11:45+00:00	96.7%	71.1%	81.3%	66.6%	59.7%
2026-09-21T22:56:50+00:00	96.7%	71.1%	81.3%	66.6%	59.7%
2026-09-21T23:41:55+00:00	96.7%	71.1%	81.3%	66.6%	59.7%
2026-09-22T00:27:00+00:00	96.7%	71.1%	81.3%	66.6%	59.7%
2026-09-22T01:12:09+00:00	96.7%	71.1%	81.3%	66.6%	59.7%
2026-09-22T01:57:15+00:00	97.4%	71.1%	81.3%	66.6%	59.7%
2026-09-22T02:42:38+00:00	97.4%	71.1%	81.3%	66.6%	59.7%
2026-09-22T03:27:47+00:00	97.4%	71.1%	81.3%	66.6%	59.7%
2026-09-22T04:12:51+00:00	97.4%	71.1%	81.3%	66.6%	59.7%
2026-09-22T04:58:05+00:00	97.4%	71.1%	81.3%	66.6%	93.3%
2026-09-22T05:43:30+00:00	97.4%	71.1%	81.3%	66.6%	93.3%
2026-09-22T06:28:43+00:00	97.4%	71.1%	81.3%	66.6%	93.3%
2026-09-22T07:13:51+00:00	97.4%	71.1%	81.3%	66.6%	93.3%
2026-09-22T07:59:28+00:00	87.8%	71.1%	81.3%	88.0%	93.3%
2026-09-22T08:44:42+00:00	87.8%	71.1%	81.3%	88.0%	93.3%
2026-09-22T09:29:48+00:00	87.8%	71.1%	81.3%	88.0%	93.3%
2026-09-22T10:14:53+00:00	87.8%	71.1%	81.3%	88.0%	93.3%
2026-09-22T11:00:06+00:00	87.8%	60.8%	81.3%	88.0%	93.3%
2026-09-22T11:45:12+00:00	87.8%	60.8%	81.3%	88.0%	93.3%
2026-09-22T12:30:17+00:00	87.8%	60.8%	81.3%	88.0%	93.3%
2026-09-22T13:15:22+00:00	87.8%	60.8%	81.3%	88.0%	93.3%
2026-09-22T14:00:32+00:00	98.4%	60.8%	81.3%	88.0%	93.3%
2026-09-22T14:47:15+00:00	98.4%	60.8%	81.3%	88.0%	93.3%
2026-09-23T02:49:27+00:00	90.9%	61.3%	63.0%	88.0%	95.7%
2026-09-23T03:34:41+00:00	90.9%	61.3%	63.0%	88.0%	95.7%
2026-09-23T04:19:46+00:00	90.9%	61.3%	63.0%	88.0%	95.7%
2026-09-23T05:04:59+00:00	90.9%	61.3%	63.0%	57.2%	94.7%
2026-09-23T05:50:07+00:00	90.9%	61.3%	63.0%	57.2%	94.7%
2026-09-23T06:35:12+00:00	90.9%	61.3%	63.0%	57.2%	94.7%
2026-09-23T07:20:20+00:00	90.9%	61.3%	63.0%	57.2%	94.7%
2026-09-23T08:05:59+00:00	68.6%	61.3%	63.0%	29.2%	94.7%
2026-09-23T08:51:14+00:00	68.6%	61.3%	63.0%	29.2%	94.7%
2026-09-23T09:36:18+00:00	68.6%	61.3%	63.0%	29.2%	94.7%
2026-09-23T10:21:22+00:00	68.6%	61.3%	63.0%	29.2%	94.7%
2026-09-23T11:06:35+00:00	68.6%	71.9%	53.8%	29.2%	94.7%
2026-09-23T11:51:41+00:00	68.6%	71.9%	53.8%	29.2%	94.7%
2026-09-23T12:36:46+00:00	68.6%	71.9%	53.8%	29.2%	94.7%
2026-09-23T13:21:51+00:00	81.2%	71.9%	53.8%	29.2%	94.7%
2026-09-23T14:09:09+00:00	80.7%	71.9%	53.8%	29.2%	94.6%
2026-09-24T15:02:04+00:00	97.0%	70.2%	70.3%	69.0%	36.0%
2026-09-24T15:47:24+00:00	97.0%	70.5%	70.3%	69.0%	36.0%
2026-09-24T16:32:30+00:00	97.0%	70.5%	70.3%	69.0%	36.0%
2026-09-24T17:17:36+00:00	97.0%	70.5%	73.7%	69.0%	36.0%
2026-09-24T18:02:41+00:00	97.0%	70.5%	73.7%	69.0%	36.0%
2026-09-24T18:47:45+00:00	97.0%	70.5%	73.7%	69.0%	36.0%
2026-09-24T19:32:57+00:00	97.5%	70.5%	73.7%	69.0%	78.3%
2026-09-24T20:18:03+00:00	97.5%	70.5%	73.7%	69.0%	78.3%
2026-09-24T21:03:08+00:00	97.5%	70.5%	73.7%	69.0%	78.3%
2026-09-24T21:48:14+00:00	97.5%	70.5%	73.7%	69.0%	78.3%
2026-09-24T22:33:20+00:00	97.5%	70.5%	73.7%	74.4%	78.3%
2026-09-24T23:18:27+00:00	97.5%	70.5%	83.3%	74.4%	78.3%
2026-09-25T00:03:32+00:00	97.5%	70.5%	83.3%	74.4%	78.3%
2026-09-25T00:48:46+00:00	97.5%	70.5%	83.3%	74.4%	78.3%
2026-09-25T01:33:54+00:00	96.3%	70.5%	83.3%	74.4%	78.3%
2026-09-25T02:19:01+00:00	96.3%	70.5%	83.3%	74.4%	78.3%
2026-09-25T03:04:36+00:00	96.3%	70.5%	83.3%	74.4%	78.3%
2026-09-25T03:49:47+00:00	96.3%	70.5%	83.3%	74.4%	78.3%
2026-09-25T04:34:53+00:00	96.3%	70.5%	83.3%	74.4%	90.0%
2026-09-25T05:20:00+00:00	96.3%	70.5%	83.9%	74.4%	90.0%
2026-09-25T06:05:07+00:00	96.3%	70.5%	83.9%	74.4%	90.0%
2026-09-25T06:50:11+00:00	96.3%	70.5%	83.9%	74.4%	90.0%
2026-09-25T07:35:21+00:00	97.4%	70.5%	83.9%	74.4%	90.0%
2026-09-25T08:20:26+00:00	97.4%	70.5%	83.9%	74.4%	90.0%
2026-09-25T09:05:32+00:00	97.4%	70.5%	83.9%	74.4%	90.0%
2026-09-25T09:50:36+00:00	97.4%	70.5%	83.9%	74.4%	90.0%
2026-09-25T10:35:42+00:00	97.4%	70.5%	83.9%	74.4%	90.0%
2026-09-25T11:20:49+00:00	97.4%	81.6%	83.9%	74.4%	90.0%
2026-09-25T12:05:54+00:00	97.4%	81.6%	83.9%	74.4%	90.0%
2026-09-25T12:51:00+00:00	97.4%	81.6%	83.9%	74.4%	90.0%
2026-09-25T13:36:07+00:00	95.0%	81.6%	83.9%	74.4%	90.0%
2026-09-25T14:23:08+00:00	95.0%	81.3%	83.9%	74.4%	89.5%
2026-09-25T15:08:14+00:00	95.0%	82.6%	83.9%	74.4%	89.5%
2026-09-25T15:53:19+00:00	95.0%	82.6%	83.9%	74.4%	89.5%
2026-09-25T16:38:25+00:00	95.0%	82.6%	83.9%	74.4%	79.3%
2026-09-25T17:23:33+00:00	95.0%	82.6%	92.1%	74.4%	79.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	77.7°F	4.4°F	2026-09-25 06:00	0.0025
WeatherNext 2	92%	75.7°F	3.7°F	2026-09-25 06:00	0.0062
IFS Ensemble	83%	74.9°F	4.7°F	2026-09-25 00:00	0.0303
ICON	79%	73.7°F	3.9°F	2026-09-25 12:00	0.0428
IFS HRES	74%	73.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.0655
National Blend	63%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-25 06:00	0.1347
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-25 02:00	0.2016

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260928-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 21 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗