KBOI / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 22 · 22:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 18.4¢Risks 18.40u

WN2NO 81.6¢Risks 81.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.60u · WN2 −81.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	2.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	2.8%	—	—	5.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	1.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	7.4%	0.0%	7.4%	—	1.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	11.0%	3.2%	2.3%	—	0.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.9%	0.4%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.5%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	1.7%	—	0.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%	1.1%	—	0.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.5%	0.1%	1.2%	—	1.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	—	0.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%	—	0.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	32%	82.3°F	6.9°F	2026-09-22 12:00	0.1030
IFS HRES	14%	78.3°F	6.7°F	2026-09-22 00:00	0.0193
IFS Ensemble	7%	72.9°F	8.4°F	2026-09-22 00:00	0.0044
AIFS Single	6%	77.3°F	5.3°F	2026-09-22 12:00	0.0038
WeatherNext 2	5%	75.7°F	5.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.0022
National Blend	<1%	68.0°F	5.6°F	2026-09-22 06:00	0.0000
NWS forecast	<1%	68.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-22 14:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260928-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 21 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗