KBOI / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 22 · 22:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 18.4¢Risks 18.40u

WN2NO 81.6¢Risks 81.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.60u · WN2 −81.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T22:18:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-21T10:52:29+00:00	1.5%	10.8%	4.7%	8.7%	3.3%
2026-09-21T11:37:57+00:00	1.5%	6.6%	4.7%	8.7%	3.3%
2026-09-21T12:23:03+00:00	1.5%	6.6%	4.7%	8.7%	3.3%
2026-09-21T13:08:08+00:00	1.5%	6.6%	4.7%	8.7%	3.3%
2026-09-21T13:53:16+00:00	4.7%	6.6%	4.7%	8.8%	3.3%
2026-09-21T14:40:21+00:00	4.7%	6.6%	4.7%	8.8%	3.3%
2026-09-21T15:25:40+00:00	4.7%	6.3%	4.7%	8.8%	3.3%
2026-09-21T16:10:49+00:00	4.7%	6.3%	4.7%	8.8%	3.3%
2026-09-21T16:55:54+00:00	4.7%	6.3%	4.7%	8.8%	9.9%
2026-09-21T17:40:59+00:00	4.7%	6.3%	4.7%	8.8%	9.9%
2026-09-21T18:26:04+00:00	4.7%	6.3%	4.7%	8.8%	9.9%
2026-09-21T19:11:14+00:00	4.7%	6.3%	4.7%	8.8%	9.9%
2026-09-21T19:56:26+00:00	19.4%	6.3%	4.7%	2.5%	9.9%
2026-09-21T20:41:33+00:00	19.4%	6.3%	4.7%	2.5%	9.9%
2026-09-21T21:26:39+00:00	19.4%	6.3%	4.7%	2.5%	9.9%
2026-09-21T22:11:45+00:00	19.4%	6.3%	4.7%	2.5%	9.9%
2026-09-21T22:56:50+00:00	19.4%	6.3%	4.7%	2.5%	9.9%
2026-09-21T23:41:55+00:00	19.4%	6.3%	4.7%	2.5%	9.9%
2026-09-22T00:27:00+00:00	19.4%	6.3%	4.7%	2.5%	9.9%
2026-09-22T01:12:09+00:00	19.4%	6.3%	4.7%	2.5%	9.9%
2026-09-22T01:57:15+00:00	22.5%	6.3%	4.7%	2.5%	9.9%
2026-09-22T02:42:38+00:00	22.5%	6.3%	4.7%	2.5%	9.9%
2026-09-22T03:27:47+00:00	22.5%	6.3%	4.7%	2.5%	9.9%
2026-09-22T04:12:51+00:00	22.5%	6.3%	4.7%	2.5%	9.9%
2026-09-22T04:58:05+00:00	22.5%	6.3%	4.7%	2.5%	24.7%
2026-09-22T05:43:30+00:00	22.5%	6.3%	4.7%	2.5%	24.7%
2026-09-22T06:28:43+00:00	22.5%	6.3%	4.7%	2.5%	24.7%
2026-09-22T07:13:51+00:00	22.5%	6.3%	4.7%	2.5%	24.7%
2026-09-22T07:59:28+00:00	4.9%	6.3%	4.7%	13.9%	24.7%
2026-09-22T08:44:42+00:00	4.9%	6.3%	4.7%	13.9%	24.7%
2026-09-22T09:29:48+00:00	4.9%	6.3%	4.7%	13.9%	24.7%
2026-09-22T10:14:53+00:00	4.9%	6.3%	4.7%	13.9%	24.7%
2026-09-22T11:00:06+00:00	4.9%	6.5%	4.7%	13.9%	24.7%
2026-09-22T11:45:12+00:00	4.9%	6.5%	4.7%	13.9%	24.7%
2026-09-22T12:30:17+00:00	4.9%	6.5%	4.7%	13.9%	24.7%
2026-09-22T13:15:22+00:00	4.9%	6.5%	4.7%	13.9%	24.7%
2026-09-22T14:00:32+00:00	25.0%	6.5%	4.7%	13.9%	24.7%
2026-09-22T14:47:15+00:00	25.0%	6.5%	4.7%	13.9%	24.7%
2026-09-22T15:32:32+00:00	25.0%	6.6%	4.7%	13.9%	24.7%
2026-09-22T16:17:42+00:00	25.0%	6.6%	4.7%	13.9%	24.7%
2026-09-22T17:02:48+00:00	25.0%	6.6%	4.7%	13.9%	32.1%
2026-09-22T17:47:53+00:00	25.0%	6.6%	4.7%	13.9%	32.1%
2026-09-22T18:32:59+00:00	25.0%	6.6%	4.7%	13.9%	32.1%
2026-09-22T19:18:07+00:00	25.0%	6.6%	4.7%	13.9%	32.1%
2026-09-22T20:03:13+00:00	6.2%	6.6%	4.7%	13.9%	32.1%
2026-09-22T20:48:17+00:00	6.2%	6.6%	4.7%	13.9%	32.1%
2026-09-22T21:33:27+00:00	6.2%	6.6%	4.7%	13.9%	32.1%
2026-09-22T22:18:34+00:00	6.2%	6.6%	4.7%	13.9%	32.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	32%	82.3°F	6.9°F	2026-09-22 12:00	0.1030
IFS HRES	14%	78.3°F	6.7°F	2026-09-22 00:00	0.0193
IFS Ensemble	7%	72.9°F	8.4°F	2026-09-22 00:00	0.0044
AIFS Single	6%	77.3°F	5.3°F	2026-09-22 12:00	0.0038
WeatherNext 2	5%	75.7°F	5.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.0022
National Blend	<1%	68.0°F	5.6°F	2026-09-22 06:00	0.0000
NWS forecast	<1%	68.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-22 14:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260928-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 21 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗