KBOI / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 23 · 18:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 15.7¢Risks 15.65u

WN2NO 84.4¢Risks 84.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +84.35u · WN2 −84.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:40:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-22T07:59:29+00:00	30.7%	5.1%	4.7%	27.3%	1.0%
2026-09-22T08:44:42+00:00	30.7%	5.1%	4.7%	27.3%	1.0%
2026-09-22T09:29:48+00:00	30.7%	5.1%	4.7%	27.3%	1.0%
2026-09-22T10:14:53+00:00	30.7%	5.1%	4.7%	27.3%	1.0%
2026-09-22T11:00:06+00:00	30.7%	7.3%	4.7%	27.3%	1.0%
2026-09-22T11:45:12+00:00	30.7%	7.3%	4.7%	27.3%	1.0%
2026-09-22T12:30:17+00:00	30.7%	7.3%	4.7%	27.3%	1.0%
2026-09-22T13:15:22+00:00	30.7%	7.3%	4.7%	27.3%	1.0%
2026-09-22T14:00:32+00:00	36.7%	7.3%	4.8%	27.4%	1.0%
2026-09-22T14:47:15+00:00	36.7%	7.3%	4.8%	27.4%	1.0%
2026-09-22T15:32:32+00:00	36.7%	7.8%	4.8%	27.4%	1.0%
2026-09-22T16:17:42+00:00	36.7%	7.8%	4.8%	27.4%	1.0%
2026-09-22T17:02:48+00:00	36.7%	7.8%	4.8%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-09-22T17:47:53+00:00	36.7%	7.8%	4.8%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-09-22T18:32:59+00:00	36.7%	7.8%	4.8%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-09-22T19:18:07+00:00	36.7%	7.8%	4.8%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-09-22T20:03:13+00:00	1.9%	7.8%	4.8%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-09-22T20:48:17+00:00	1.9%	7.8%	4.8%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-09-22T21:33:27+00:00	1.9%	7.8%	4.8%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-09-22T22:18:34+00:00	1.9%	7.8%	4.8%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-09-22T23:03:41+00:00	1.9%	7.5%	1.2%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-09-22T23:48:47+00:00	1.9%	7.5%	1.2%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-09-23T00:33:52+00:00	1.9%	7.5%	1.2%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-09-23T01:19:00+00:00	1.9%	7.5%	1.2%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-09-23T02:04:08+00:00	38.7%	7.5%	1.2%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-09-23T02:49:28+00:00	38.7%	7.5%	1.2%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-09-23T03:34:41+00:00	38.7%	7.5%	1.2%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-09-23T04:19:46+00:00	38.7%	7.5%	1.2%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-09-23T05:04:59+00:00	38.7%	7.5%	1.2%	26.9%	45.9%
2026-09-23T05:50:07+00:00	38.7%	7.5%	1.2%	26.9%	45.9%
2026-09-23T06:35:12+00:00	38.7%	7.5%	1.2%	26.9%	45.9%
2026-09-23T07:20:20+00:00	38.7%	7.5%	1.2%	26.9%	45.9%
2026-09-23T08:05:59+00:00	45.5%	7.5%	1.2%	5.7%	45.9%
2026-09-23T08:51:14+00:00	45.5%	7.5%	1.2%	5.7%	45.9%
2026-09-23T09:36:18+00:00	45.5%	7.5%	1.2%	5.7%	45.9%
2026-09-23T10:21:22+00:00	45.5%	7.5%	1.2%	5.7%	45.9%
2026-09-23T11:06:35+00:00	45.5%	1.8%	1.3%	5.7%	45.9%
2026-09-23T11:51:41+00:00	45.5%	1.8%	1.3%	5.7%	45.9%
2026-09-23T12:36:46+00:00	45.5%	1.8%	1.3%	5.7%	45.9%
2026-09-23T13:21:51+00:00	29.9%	1.8%	1.3%	5.7%	45.9%
2026-09-23T14:09:09+00:00	30.0%	1.9%	1.3%	5.7%	45.4%
2026-09-23T14:54:24+00:00	30.0%	1.9%	1.3%	5.7%	45.4%
2026-09-23T15:39:33+00:00	30.0%	1.8%	1.3%	5.7%	45.4%
2026-09-23T16:24:42+00:00	30.0%	1.8%	1.3%	5.7%	2.2%
2026-09-23T17:09:52+00:00	30.0%	1.8%	1.3%	5.7%	2.2%
2026-09-23T17:54:57+00:00	30.0%	1.8%	1.3%	5.7%	2.2%
2026-09-23T18:40:03+00:00	30.0%	1.8%	1.3%	5.7%	2.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	30%	82.7°F	5.3°F	2026-09-23 06:00	0.0900
IFS HRES	6%	75.0°F	6.7°F	2026-09-23 00:00	0.0032
ICON	2%	71.6°F	6.9°F	2026-09-23 12:00	0.0005
IFS Ensemble	2%	71.1°F	6.9°F	2026-09-23 00:00	0.0003
NWS forecast	2%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-23 14:00	0.0003
WeatherNext 2	1%	75.4°F	4.5°F	2026-09-23 06:00	0.0002
National Blend	<1%	71.0°F	6.0°F	2026-09-23 06:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260929-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 22 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗