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KBOI / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 23 · 18:40 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
30%
HRES
6%
ICON
2%
EPS
2%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 15.7¢Risks 15.65u
VS
WN2NO 84.4¢Risks 84.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +84.35u · WN2 −84.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.1% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.2% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.5% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.3% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.5% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.7% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.8% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.3% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.9% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 23.7% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.4% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.9% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.4% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.3% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.5% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.9% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.6% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.3% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.1% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.9% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.5% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.7% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.5% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.2% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.4% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.9% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:0009-14 12:0009-22 06:0009-29 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:003.5%—————
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:000.4%————9.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:0016.2%—————
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:006.4%————12.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:009.6%—————
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:000.1%————7.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:001.3%—————
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:000.6%————12.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:0017.5%—————
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:006.1%————9.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:003.3%—————
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:0062.1%————8.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:0039.5%—————
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:0044.2%————9.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:0066.5%—————
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:0050.5%————20.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:0074.3%—————
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:0070.0%————31.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:0060.5%—————
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:0042.7%————18.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:0018.9%—————
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:0026.8%————17.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:0013.8%—0.0%———
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:003.8%—3.2%——18.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:0011.4%—15.4%———
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:006.9%————20.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:007.2%—0.5%———
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:0040.3%—0.1%——10.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:005.7%—12.9%———
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:0013.9%0.0%0.3%——9.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:0016.2%—3.0%———
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:000.3%24.1%2.9%0.0%—4.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:0017.5%—0.3%———
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:0022.6%23.7%1.5%0.2%—2.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:0011.5%—0.7%———
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:005.4%0.1%5.4%6.5%—1.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:005.2%—0.7%———
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:003.8%0.1%0.3%6.9%—0.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:005.5%—0.1%———
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:004.9%1.6%4.3%1.6%—1.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:002.4%0.0%1.1%———
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:002.3%0.8%0.7%3.6%—1.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:001.1%0.6%0.3%———
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:001.2%0.9%1.8%0.7%—2.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:000.8%0.3%0.4%———
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:000.8%0.2%0.8%1.1%—1.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:000.7%0.2%0.4%——0.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:000.7%0.1%0.3%0.3%—0.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:000.7%0.0%0.3%——0.6%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:000.4%0.0%0.3%0.2%—0.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%0.2%0.0%—0.2%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.1%0.1%—0.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.1%0.1%—0.1%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.1%0.1%—0.1%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single30%82.7°F5.3°F2026-09-23 06:000.0900
IFS HRES6%75.0°F6.7°F2026-09-23 00:000.0032
ICON2%71.6°F6.9°F2026-09-23 12:000.0005
IFS Ensemble2%71.1°F6.9°F2026-09-23 00:000.0003
NWS forecast2%73.0°F5.8°F2026-09-23 14:000.0003
WeatherNext 21%75.4°F4.5°F2026-09-23 06:000.0002
National Blend<1%71.0°F6.0°F2026-09-23 06:000.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260929-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 22 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗