KBOI / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 23 · 02:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

16%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 17.3¢Risks 17.30u

WN2NO 82.7¢Risks 82.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +82.70u · WN2 −82.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.7%	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	2.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	2.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.9%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	7.4%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.0%	0.9%	1.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	—	0.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	34%	85.6°F	9.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	0.1190
AIFS Single	16%	83.9°F	5.6°F	2026-09-22 18:00	0.0246
IFS HRES	11%	81.7°F	6.3°F	2026-09-22 00:00	0.0119
IFS Ensemble	3%	73.7°F	8.2°F	2026-09-22 00:00	0.0007
National Blend	1%	72.0°F	7.8°F	2026-09-22 06:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	74.6°F	4.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260929-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 22 · 17:02 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Boise · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗