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KBOI / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 23 · 02:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
34%
AIFS
16%
HRES
11%
EPS
3%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 17.3¢Risks 17.30u
VS
WN2NO 82.7¢Risks 82.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +82.70u · WN2 −82.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-09-22T17:02:48+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-09-22T17:47:53+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-09-22T18:32:59+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-09-22T19:18:07+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-09-23T02:04:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.8% · 2026-09-22T17:02:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.8% · 2026-09-22T17:47:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.8% · 2026-09-22T18:32:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.8% · 2026-09-22T19:18:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.7% · 2026-09-23T02:04:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-09-22T17:02:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-09-22T17:47:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-09-22T18:32:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-09-22T19:18:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-09-23T02:04:08+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-09-22T17:02:48+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-09-22T17:47:53+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-09-22T18:32:59+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-09-22T19:18:07+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-09-23T02:04:08+00:00ICON: 34.5% · 2026-09-22T17:02:48+00:00ICON: 34.5% · 2026-09-22T17:47:53+00:00ICON: 34.5% · 2026-09-22T18:32:59+00:00ICON: 34.5% · 2026-09-22T19:18:07+00:00ICON: 34.5% · 2026-09-23T02:04:08+00:0009-22 17:0209-22 18:3209-23 02:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-23T02:04:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-22T17:02:48+00:0014.5%2.8%1.0%10.9%34.5%
2026-09-22T17:47:53+00:0014.5%2.8%1.0%10.9%34.5%
2026-09-22T18:32:59+00:0014.5%2.8%1.0%10.9%34.5%
2026-09-22T19:18:07+00:0014.5%2.8%1.0%10.9%34.5%
2026-09-23T02:04:08+00:0015.7%2.7%0.1%10.9%34.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON34%85.6°F9.8°F2026-09-22 12:000.1190
AIFS Single16%83.9°F5.6°F2026-09-22 18:000.0246
IFS HRES11%81.7°F6.3°F2026-09-22 00:000.0119
IFS Ensemble3%73.7°F8.2°F2026-09-22 00:000.0007
National Blend1%72.0°F7.8°F2026-09-22 06:000.0001
WeatherNext 2<1%74.6°F4.8°F2026-09-22 12:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260929-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 22 · 17:02 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Boise · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗