KBOI / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 30 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

75%

55%

41%

24%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 57.5¢Risks 57.50u

ICONNO 42.5¢Risks 42.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +42.50u · ICON −42.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	—	—	—	62.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	—	—	—	70.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	71.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	79.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	2.7%	—	—	64.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	84.7%	—	—	61.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	65.2%	—	—	52.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	20.3%	64.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	78.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	46.5%	74.8%	0.0%	—	48.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	74.0%	32.3%	76.3%	—	55.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	18.9%	4.2%	77.2%	—	49.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	78.2%	20.6%	79.4%	—	54.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	33.8%	17.3%	55.0%	—	50.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	83.3%	1.7%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	29.1%	57.0%	73.1%	—	62.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	17.2%	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	35.6%	79.7%	68.6%	—	56.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	25.3%	82.9%	—	—	55.7%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	22.5%	36.6%	29.6%	—	51.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	46.0%	32.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	21.9%	29.4%	34.0%	—	50.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	20.5%	35.5%	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	17.6%	44.5%	73.6%	0.0%	51.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	18.3%	34.6%	0.0%	—	52.2%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	15.3%	44.2%	57.0%	22.4%	54.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	11.4%	48.8%	66.4%	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	61.1%	16.6%	52.5%	64.6%	0.0%	62.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	18.2%	60.2%	61.5%	—	67.5%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	24.0%	69.3%	68.1%	35.6%	63.2%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	36.3%	75.8%	74.7%	—	65.0%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	47.1%	82.8%	77.8%	50.0%	76.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	78.7%	56.0%	89.5%	82.8%	—	76.4%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	45.3%	87.5%	77.4%	54.7%	72.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	80.8%	53.3%	75.9%	74.6%	—	74.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	91%	81.9°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 18:00	0.0083
National Blend	76%	78.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.0557
WeatherNext 2	75%	78.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 18:00	0.0630
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 04:00	0.1681
IFS HRES	55%	77.0°F	3.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	0.1998
IFS Ensemble	41%	75.6°F	4.2°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.3434
ICON	24%	74.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.5761

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260930-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 77°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗