KBOI / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 30 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

75%

55%

41%

24%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 57.5¢Risks 57.50u

ICONNO 42.5¢Risks 42.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +42.50u · ICON −42.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T06:46:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-26T02:26:32+00:00	94.9%	52.0%	66.6%	67.8%	51.4%
2026-09-26T03:11:51+00:00	94.9%	52.0%	66.6%	67.8%	51.4%
2026-09-26T03:56:59+00:00	94.9%	52.0%	66.6%	67.8%	51.4%
2026-09-26T04:42:12+00:00	94.9%	52.0%	66.6%	67.8%	40.0%
2026-09-26T05:27:21+00:00	94.9%	52.0%	66.6%	67.8%	40.0%
2026-09-26T06:12:27+00:00	94.9%	52.0%	66.6%	67.8%	40.0%
2026-09-26T06:57:33+00:00	94.9%	52.0%	66.6%	67.8%	40.0%
2026-09-26T07:43:21+00:00	89.8%	52.0%	66.6%	66.2%	40.0%
2026-09-26T08:28:42+00:00	89.8%	52.0%	66.6%	66.2%	40.0%
2026-09-26T09:13:49+00:00	89.8%	52.0%	66.6%	66.2%	40.0%
2026-09-26T09:58:54+00:00	89.8%	52.0%	66.6%	66.2%	40.0%
2026-09-26T10:44:07+00:00	89.8%	52.0%	66.6%	66.2%	40.0%
2026-09-26T11:29:24+00:00	89.8%	58.8%	69.4%	66.2%	40.0%
2026-09-26T12:14:32+00:00	89.8%	58.8%	69.4%	66.2%	40.0%
2026-09-26T12:59:37+00:00	89.8%	58.8%	69.4%	66.2%	40.0%
2026-09-26T13:44:48+00:00	89.0%	58.8%	69.4%	66.2%	40.0%
2026-09-28T14:48:53+00:00	84.3%	43.4%	68.4%	46.1%	14.0%
2026-09-28T15:34:05+00:00	84.3%	39.6%	68.4%	46.1%	14.0%
2026-09-28T16:19:11+00:00	84.3%	39.6%	68.4%	46.1%	14.0%
2026-09-28T17:04:18+00:00	84.3%	39.6%	63.3%	46.1%	13.4%
2026-09-28T17:49:25+00:00	84.3%	39.6%	63.3%	46.1%	13.4%
2026-09-28T18:34:30+00:00	84.3%	39.6%	63.3%	46.1%	13.4%
2026-09-28T19:19:36+00:00	84.3%	39.6%	63.3%	46.1%	13.4%
2026-09-28T20:04:47+00:00	87.0%	39.6%	63.3%	50.0%	13.4%
2026-09-28T20:49:52+00:00	87.0%	39.6%	63.3%	50.0%	13.4%
2026-09-28T21:34:56+00:00	87.0%	39.6%	63.3%	50.0%	13.4%
2026-09-28T22:20:00+00:00	87.0%	39.6%	63.3%	50.0%	13.4%
2026-09-28T23:05:06+00:00	87.0%	39.6%	65.4%	50.0%	13.5%
2026-09-28T23:50:13+00:00	87.0%	39.6%	65.4%	50.0%	13.5%
2026-09-29T00:35:20+00:00	87.0%	39.6%	65.4%	50.0%	13.5%
2026-09-29T01:20:30+00:00	87.0%	39.6%	65.4%	50.0%	13.5%
2026-09-29T02:05:56+00:00	87.0%	39.6%	65.4%	50.0%	13.5%
2026-09-29T02:51:03+00:00	87.0%	39.6%	65.4%	50.0%	13.5%
2026-09-29T03:36:08+00:00	87.0%	39.6%	65.4%	50.0%	13.5%
2026-09-29T04:21:42+00:00	87.0%	39.6%	65.4%	50.0%	10.6%
2026-09-29T05:06:58+00:00	87.0%	39.6%	69.4%	50.0%	10.6%
2026-09-29T05:52:05+00:00	87.0%	39.6%	69.4%	50.0%	10.6%
2026-09-29T06:37:12+00:00	87.0%	39.6%	69.4%	50.0%	10.6%
2026-09-29T07:22:50+00:00	87.7%	39.6%	69.4%	47.9%	10.6%
2026-09-29T08:08:26+00:00	87.7%	39.6%	69.4%	47.9%	10.6%
2026-09-29T08:53:34+00:00	87.7%	39.6%	69.4%	47.9%	10.6%
2026-09-29T09:38:39+00:00	87.7%	39.6%	69.4%	47.9%	10.6%
2026-09-29T10:23:44+00:00	87.7%	39.6%	69.4%	47.9%	10.6%
2026-09-29T11:09:01+00:00	87.7%	44.3%	69.4%	47.9%	10.6%
2026-09-29T11:54:08+00:00	87.7%	44.3%	69.4%	47.9%	10.6%
2026-09-29T12:39:13+00:00	87.7%	44.3%	69.4%	47.9%	10.6%
2026-09-29T13:24:18+00:00	90.0%	44.3%	69.4%	47.9%	10.6%
2026-09-29T14:11:43+00:00	89.7%	44.3%	69.4%	47.9%	10.6%
2026-09-29T14:57:02+00:00	89.7%	41.5%	69.4%	47.9%	10.6%
2026-09-29T15:42:27+00:00	89.7%	41.4%	69.4%	47.9%	10.6%
2026-09-29T16:27:45+00:00	89.7%	41.4%	69.4%	47.9%	16.7%
2026-09-29T17:12:54+00:00	89.7%	41.4%	73.0%	47.9%	16.7%
2026-09-29T17:58:01+00:00	89.7%	41.4%	73.0%	47.9%	16.7%
2026-09-29T18:43:08+00:00	89.7%	41.4%	73.0%	47.9%	16.7%
2026-09-29T19:28:20+00:00	90.5%	41.4%	73.0%	55.3%	16.7%
2026-09-29T20:13:41+00:00	90.5%	41.4%	73.0%	55.3%	16.7%
2026-09-29T20:58:50+00:00	90.5%	41.4%	73.0%	55.3%	16.7%
2026-09-29T21:43:57+00:00	90.5%	41.4%	73.0%	55.3%	16.7%
2026-09-29T22:29:04+00:00	90.5%	41.4%	73.0%	55.3%	16.7%
2026-09-29T23:14:23+00:00	90.5%	41.4%	72.0%	55.3%	16.7%
2026-09-29T23:59:29+00:00	90.5%	41.4%	72.0%	55.3%	16.7%
2026-09-30T00:44:36+00:00	90.5%	41.4%	72.0%	55.3%	16.7%
2026-09-30T01:29:55+00:00	90.9%	41.4%	72.0%	55.3%	16.7%
2026-09-30T02:15:02+00:00	90.9%	41.4%	72.0%	55.3%	16.7%
2026-09-30T03:00:16+00:00	90.9%	41.4%	72.0%	55.3%	16.7%
2026-09-30T03:45:25+00:00	90.9%	41.4%	72.0%	55.3%	16.7%
2026-09-30T04:31:03+00:00	90.9%	41.4%	72.0%	55.3%	24.1%
2026-09-30T05:16:24+00:00	90.9%	41.4%	74.9%	55.3%	24.1%
2026-09-30T06:01:30+00:00	90.9%	41.4%	74.9%	55.3%	24.1%
2026-09-30T06:46:39+00:00	90.9%	41.4%	74.9%	55.3%	24.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	91%	81.9°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 18:00	0.0083
National Blend	76%	78.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.0557
WeatherNext 2	75%	78.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 18:00	0.0630
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 04:00	0.1681
IFS HRES	55%	77.0°F	3.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	0.1998
IFS Ensemble	41%	75.6°F	4.2°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.3434
ICON	24%	74.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.5761

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260930-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 77°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗