KBOI / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 72°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 25 · 02:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

89%

86%

84%

77%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 85.2¢Risks 42.62u

EPSNO 14.7¢Risks 7.37u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +7.37u · EPS −7.37u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	79.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	—	—	—	85.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	75.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	54.1%	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	28.5%	—	—	85.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	91.2%	—	—	91.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	7.5%	95.0%	—	—	94.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	17.1%	3.8%	—	92.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	72.2%	35.7%	68.3%	—	91.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	46.2%	25.8%	98.0%	—	95.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	98.1%	97.4%	98.3%	—	97.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	95.3%	100.0%	99.9%	—	97.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	40.7%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	94.1%	99.2%	97.2%	—	98.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	98.4%	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	91.4%	89.4%	97.8%	—	99.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	82.3%	90.8%	—	—	98.1%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	90.6%	98.2%	99.4%	—	99.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	84.8%	94.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	90.1%	87.7%	99.2%	—	98.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	93.5%	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	95.8%	88.1%	98.7%	—	98.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	96.9%	92.9%	0.0%	—	99.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	93.2%	96.7%	99.0%	93.9%	99.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	95.7%	97.5%	99.3%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	97.4%	99.1%	99.8%	98.6%	99.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.5%	99.5%	99.9%	—	0.2%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.6%	99.9%	100.0%	99.0%	99.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.8%	99.9%	100.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	99.9%	99.5%	99.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	99.9%	100.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.6%	99.9%	99.9%	99.8%	99.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	93%	81.1°F	6.4°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.0044
WeatherNext 2	89%	77.5°F	4.9°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.0117
AIFS Single	86%	77.5°F	5.6°F	2026-09-24 18:00	0.0199
ICON	84%	81.1°F	9.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.0269
IFS Ensemble	77%	76.7°F	7.0°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.0524
National Blend	52%	72.0°F	9.5°F	2026-09-23 06:00	0.2294

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261001-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 24 · 07:28 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗