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KBOI / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 72°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 25 · 02:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
93%
WN2
89%
AIFS
86%
ICON
84%
EPS
77%
Consensus
88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 85.2¢Risks 42.62u
VS
EPSNO 14.7¢Risks 7.37u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +7.37u · EPS −7.37u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-09-24T07:28:08+00:00AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-09-24T08:13:32+00:00AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-09-24T08:58:39+00:00AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-09-24T09:43:43+00:00AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-09-24T10:28:48+00:00AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-09-24T11:13:54+00:00AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-09-24T11:58:59+00:00AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-09-24T12:44:04+00:00AIFS Single: 97.2% · 2026-09-24T13:29:21+00:00AIFS Single: 97.0% · 2026-09-24T14:16:43+00:00AIFS Single: 97.0% · 2026-09-24T15:02:05+00:00AIFS Single: 97.0% · 2026-09-24T15:47:24+00:00AIFS Single: 97.0% · 2026-09-24T16:32:30+00:00AIFS Single: 97.0% · 2026-09-24T17:17:36+00:00AIFS Single: 97.0% · 2026-09-24T18:02:41+00:00AIFS Single: 97.0% · 2026-09-24T18:47:45+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-24T19:32:57+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-24T20:18:03+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-24T21:03:08+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-24T21:48:14+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-24T22:33:20+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-24T23:18:27+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-25T00:03:32+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-25T00:48:46+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-09-25T01:33:54+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-09-25T02:19:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-09-24T07:28:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-09-24T08:13:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-09-24T08:58:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-09-24T09:43:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-09-24T10:28:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.7% · 2026-09-24T11:13:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.7% · 2026-09-24T11:58:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.7% · 2026-09-24T12:44:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.7% · 2026-09-24T13:29:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.4% · 2026-09-24T14:16:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-09-24T15:02:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.1% · 2026-09-24T15:47:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.1% · 2026-09-24T16:32:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.1% · 2026-09-24T17:17:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.1% · 2026-09-24T18:02:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.1% · 2026-09-24T18:47:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.1% · 2026-09-24T19:32:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.1% · 2026-09-24T20:18:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.1% · 2026-09-24T21:03:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.1% · 2026-09-24T21:48:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.1% · 2026-09-24T22:33:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.1% · 2026-09-24T23:18:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.1% · 2026-09-25T00:03:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.1% · 2026-09-25T00:48:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.1% · 2026-09-25T01:33:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.1% · 2026-09-25T02:19:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.2% · 2026-09-24T07:28:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.2% · 2026-09-24T08:13:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.2% · 2026-09-24T08:58:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.2% · 2026-09-24T09:43:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.2% · 2026-09-24T10:28:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-09-24T11:13:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-09-24T11:58:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-09-24T12:44:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-09-24T13:29:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.2% · 2026-09-24T14:16:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.2% · 2026-09-24T15:02:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.2% · 2026-09-24T15:47:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.2% · 2026-09-24T16:32:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-09-24T17:17:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-09-24T18:02:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-09-24T18:47:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-09-24T19:32:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-09-24T20:18:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-09-24T21:03:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-09-24T21:48:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-09-24T22:33:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-09-24T23:18:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-09-25T00:03:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-09-25T00:48:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-09-25T01:33:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-09-25T02:19:01+00:00IFS HRES: 95.6% · 2026-09-24T07:28:08+00:00IFS HRES: 95.6% · 2026-09-24T08:13:32+00:00IFS HRES: 95.6% · 2026-09-24T08:58:39+00:00IFS HRES: 95.6% · 2026-09-24T09:43:43+00:00IFS HRES: 95.6% · 2026-09-24T10:28:48+00:00IFS HRES: 95.6% · 2026-09-24T11:13:54+00:00IFS HRES: 95.6% · 2026-09-24T11:58:59+00:00IFS HRES: 95.6% · 2026-09-24T12:44:04+00:00IFS HRES: 95.6% · 2026-09-24T13:29:21+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-09-24T14:16:43+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-09-24T15:02:05+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-09-24T15:47:24+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-09-24T16:32:30+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-09-24T17:17:36+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-09-24T18:02:41+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-09-24T18:47:45+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-09-24T19:32:57+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-09-24T20:18:03+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-09-24T21:03:08+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-09-24T21:48:14+00:00IFS HRES: 93.4% · 2026-09-24T22:33:20+00:00IFS HRES: 93.4% · 2026-09-24T23:18:27+00:00IFS HRES: 93.4% · 2026-09-25T00:03:32+00:00IFS HRES: 93.4% · 2026-09-25T00:48:46+00:00IFS HRES: 93.4% · 2026-09-25T01:33:54+00:00IFS HRES: 93.4% · 2026-09-25T02:19:01+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-24T07:28:08+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-24T08:13:32+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-24T08:58:39+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-24T09:43:43+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-24T10:28:48+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-24T11:13:54+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-24T11:58:59+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-24T12:44:04+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-24T13:29:21+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-24T14:16:43+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-24T15:02:05+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-24T15:47:24+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-24T16:32:30+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-24T17:17:36+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-24T18:02:41+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-24T18:47:45+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-09-24T19:32:57+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-09-24T20:18:03+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-09-24T21:03:08+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-09-24T21:48:14+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-09-24T22:33:20+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-09-24T23:18:27+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-09-25T00:03:32+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-09-25T00:48:46+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-09-25T01:33:54+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-09-25T02:19:01+00:0009-24 07:2809-24 17:1709-25 02:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-25T02:19:01+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-24T07:28:08+00:0099.5%66.2%84.2%95.6%32.3%
2026-09-24T08:13:32+00:0099.5%66.2%84.2%95.6%32.3%
2026-09-24T08:58:39+00:0099.5%66.2%84.2%95.6%32.3%
2026-09-24T09:43:43+00:0099.5%66.2%84.2%95.6%32.3%
2026-09-24T10:28:48+00:0099.5%66.2%84.2%95.6%32.3%
2026-09-24T11:13:54+00:0099.5%76.7%86.4%95.6%32.3%
2026-09-24T11:58:59+00:0099.5%76.7%86.4%95.6%32.3%
2026-09-24T12:44:04+00:0099.5%76.7%86.4%95.6%32.3%
2026-09-24T13:29:21+00:0097.2%76.7%86.4%95.6%32.3%
2026-09-24T14:16:43+00:0097.0%76.4%86.2%95.5%32.3%
2026-09-24T15:02:05+00:0097.0%76.9%86.2%95.5%32.3%
2026-09-24T15:47:24+00:0097.0%77.1%86.2%95.5%32.3%
2026-09-24T16:32:30+00:0097.0%77.1%86.2%95.5%32.3%
2026-09-24T17:17:36+00:0097.0%77.1%80.6%95.5%32.3%
2026-09-24T18:02:41+00:0097.0%77.1%80.6%95.5%32.3%
2026-09-24T18:47:45+00:0097.0%77.1%80.6%95.5%32.3%
2026-09-24T19:32:57+00:0099.3%77.1%80.6%95.5%83.6%
2026-09-24T20:18:03+00:0099.3%77.1%80.6%95.5%83.6%
2026-09-24T21:03:08+00:0099.3%77.1%80.6%95.5%83.6%
2026-09-24T21:48:14+00:0099.3%77.1%80.6%95.5%83.6%
2026-09-24T22:33:20+00:0099.3%77.1%80.6%93.4%83.6%
2026-09-24T23:18:27+00:0099.3%77.1%89.2%93.4%83.6%
2026-09-25T00:03:32+00:0099.3%77.1%89.2%93.4%83.6%
2026-09-25T00:48:46+00:0099.3%77.1%89.2%93.4%83.6%
2026-09-25T01:33:54+00:0085.9%77.1%89.2%93.4%83.6%
2026-09-25T02:19:01+00:0085.9%77.1%89.2%93.4%83.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES93%81.1°F6.4°F2026-09-24 12:000.0044
WeatherNext 289%77.5°F4.9°F2026-09-24 12:000.0117
AIFS Single86%77.5°F5.6°F2026-09-24 18:000.0199
ICON84%81.1°F9.8°F2026-09-24 12:000.0269
IFS Ensemble77%76.7°F7.0°F2026-09-24 00:000.0524
National Blend52%72.0°F9.5°F2026-09-23 06:000.2294

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261001-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 24 · 07:28 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗