KBOI / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

56%

46%

34%

34%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

EPSNO 38.8¢Risks 38.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +38.80u · EPS −38.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T06:57:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T03:20:03+00:00	97.5%	51.5%	35.2%	67.2%	64.7%
2026-09-27T04:05:15+00:00	97.5%	51.5%	35.2%	67.2%	64.7%
2026-09-27T04:50:23+00:00	97.5%	51.5%	35.2%	67.2%	53.4%
2026-09-27T05:35:33+00:00	97.5%	51.5%	50.0%	67.2%	53.4%
2026-09-27T06:20:40+00:00	97.5%	51.5%	50.0%	67.2%	53.4%
2026-09-27T07:05:46+00:00	97.5%	51.5%	50.0%	67.2%	53.4%
2026-09-27T07:51:31+00:00	92.9%	51.5%	50.0%	79.8%	53.4%
2026-09-27T08:36:56+00:00	92.9%	51.5%	50.0%	79.8%	53.4%
2026-09-27T09:22:01+00:00	92.9%	51.5%	50.0%	79.8%	53.4%
2026-09-27T10:07:06+00:00	92.9%	51.5%	50.0%	79.8%	53.4%
2026-09-27T10:52:12+00:00	92.9%	51.5%	50.0%	79.8%	53.4%
2026-09-27T11:37:22+00:00	92.9%	50.6%	57.1%	79.8%	53.4%
2026-09-27T12:22:27+00:00	92.9%	50.6%	57.1%	79.8%	53.4%
2026-09-27T13:07:35+00:00	92.9%	50.6%	57.1%	79.8%	53.4%
2026-09-27T13:52:48+00:00	94.2%	50.6%	57.1%	79.8%	54.2%
2026-09-28T03:28:06+00:00	81.2%	49.4%	63.9%	77.5%	44.1%
2026-09-28T04:13:31+00:00	81.2%	49.4%	63.9%	77.5%	44.1%
2026-09-28T04:58:38+00:00	81.2%	49.4%	52.0%	77.5%	29.5%
2026-09-28T05:43:49+00:00	81.2%	49.4%	52.0%	77.5%	29.5%
2026-09-28T06:28:57+00:00	81.2%	49.4%	52.0%	77.5%	29.5%
2026-09-28T07:14:02+00:00	81.2%	49.4%	52.0%	77.5%	29.5%
2026-09-28T08:00:03+00:00	87.4%	49.4%	52.0%	59.7%	29.5%
2026-09-28T08:45:30+00:00	87.4%	49.4%	52.0%	59.7%	29.5%
2026-09-28T09:30:35+00:00	87.4%	49.4%	52.0%	59.7%	29.5%
2026-09-28T10:15:41+00:00	87.4%	49.4%	52.0%	59.7%	29.5%
2026-09-28T11:00:57+00:00	87.4%	45.2%	55.4%	59.7%	29.5%
2026-09-28T11:46:09+00:00	87.4%	45.2%	55.4%	59.7%	29.5%
2026-09-28T12:31:15+00:00	87.4%	45.2%	55.4%	59.7%	29.5%
2026-09-28T13:16:23+00:00	87.4%	45.2%	55.4%	59.7%	29.5%
2026-09-28T14:01:31+00:00	83.8%	45.2%	55.4%	59.7%	29.5%
2026-09-28T14:48:53+00:00	83.8%	45.2%	55.4%	59.7%	29.5%
2026-09-28T15:34:05+00:00	83.8%	42.7%	55.4%	59.7%	29.5%
2026-09-28T16:19:11+00:00	83.8%	42.7%	55.4%	59.7%	29.5%
2026-09-28T17:04:18+00:00	83.8%	42.7%	47.8%	59.7%	26.1%
2026-09-28T17:49:25+00:00	83.8%	42.7%	47.8%	59.7%	26.1%
2026-09-28T18:34:30+00:00	83.8%	42.7%	47.8%	59.7%	26.1%
2026-09-28T19:19:36+00:00	83.8%	42.7%	47.8%	59.7%	26.1%
2026-09-28T20:04:47+00:00	84.4%	42.7%	47.8%	44.7%	26.1%
2026-09-28T20:49:52+00:00	84.4%	42.7%	47.8%	44.7%	26.1%
2026-09-28T21:34:56+00:00	84.4%	42.7%	47.8%	44.7%	26.1%
2026-09-28T22:20:00+00:00	84.4%	42.7%	47.8%	44.7%	26.1%
2026-09-28T23:05:06+00:00	84.4%	42.7%	47.8%	44.7%	26.1%
2026-09-28T23:50:13+00:00	84.4%	42.7%	47.8%	44.7%	26.1%
2026-09-29T00:35:20+00:00	84.4%	42.7%	47.8%	44.7%	26.1%
2026-09-29T01:20:30+00:00	84.4%	42.7%	47.8%	44.7%	26.1%
2026-09-29T02:05:56+00:00	80.2%	42.7%	47.8%	44.7%	26.1%
2026-09-29T02:51:03+00:00	80.2%	42.7%	47.8%	44.7%	26.1%
2026-09-29T03:36:08+00:00	80.2%	42.7%	47.8%	44.7%	26.1%
2026-09-29T15:42:27+00:00	86.0%	30.4%	43.6%	41.3%	27.5%
2026-09-29T16:27:45+00:00	86.0%	30.4%	43.6%	41.3%	17.4%
2026-09-29T17:12:54+00:00	86.0%	30.4%	46.6%	41.3%	17.4%
2026-09-29T17:58:01+00:00	86.0%	30.4%	46.6%	41.3%	17.4%
2026-09-29T18:43:08+00:00	86.0%	30.4%	46.6%	41.3%	17.4%
2026-09-29T19:28:20+00:00	84.4%	30.4%	46.6%	49.0%	17.4%
2026-09-29T20:13:41+00:00	84.4%	30.4%	46.6%	49.0%	17.4%
2026-09-29T20:58:50+00:00	84.4%	30.4%	46.6%	49.0%	17.4%
2026-09-29T21:43:57+00:00	84.4%	30.4%	46.6%	49.0%	17.4%
2026-09-29T22:29:04+00:00	84.4%	30.4%	46.6%	49.0%	17.4%
2026-09-29T23:14:23+00:00	84.4%	30.4%	43.3%	49.0%	17.4%
2026-09-29T23:59:29+00:00	84.4%	30.4%	43.3%	49.0%	17.4%
2026-09-30T00:44:36+00:00	84.4%	30.4%	43.3%	49.0%	17.4%
2026-09-30T01:29:55+00:00	86.6%	30.4%	43.3%	49.0%	17.4%
2026-09-30T02:15:02+00:00	86.6%	30.4%	43.3%	49.0%	17.4%
2026-09-30T03:00:16+00:00	86.6%	30.4%	43.3%	49.0%	17.4%
2026-09-30T03:45:25+00:00	86.6%	30.4%	43.3%	49.0%	17.4%
2026-09-30T04:31:03+00:00	86.6%	30.4%	43.3%	49.0%	18.9%
2026-09-30T05:16:24+00:00	86.6%	30.4%	46.6%	49.0%	18.9%
2026-09-30T06:01:30+00:00	86.6%	30.4%	46.6%	49.0%	18.9%
2026-09-30T06:46:39+00:00	86.6%	30.4%	46.6%	49.0%	18.9%
2026-09-30T07:32:33+00:00	86.6%	30.4%	46.6%	56.4%	18.9%
2026-09-30T08:18:26+00:00	86.6%	30.4%	46.6%	56.4%	18.9%
2026-09-30T09:03:37+00:00	86.6%	30.4%	46.6%	56.4%	18.9%
2026-09-30T09:48:43+00:00	86.6%	30.4%	46.6%	56.4%	18.9%
2026-09-30T10:34:53+00:00	87.3%	30.4%	46.6%	56.4%	18.9%
2026-09-30T11:20:08+00:00	87.3%	34.1%	47.7%	56.4%	18.9%
2026-09-30T12:05:15+00:00	87.3%	34.1%	47.7%	56.4%	18.9%
2026-09-30T12:50:21+00:00	87.3%	34.1%	47.7%	56.4%	18.9%
2026-09-30T13:35:33+00:00	87.3%	34.1%	47.7%	56.4%	18.9%
2026-09-30T14:23:11+00:00	87.3%	34.1%	47.7%	56.4%	18.9%
2026-09-30T15:08:17+00:00	87.3%	34.1%	47.7%	56.4%	18.9%
2026-09-30T15:53:40+00:00	87.3%	34.1%	47.7%	56.4%	18.9%
2026-09-30T16:38:52+00:00	87.3%	34.1%	47.7%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-09-30T17:23:59+00:00	87.3%	34.1%	48.8%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-09-30T18:09:08+00:00	87.3%	34.1%	48.8%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-09-30T18:54:15+00:00	87.3%	34.1%	48.8%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-09-30T19:39:23+00:00	86.7%	34.1%	48.8%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-09-30T20:24:35+00:00	86.7%	34.1%	48.8%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-09-30T21:09:40+00:00	86.7%	34.1%	48.8%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-09-30T21:54:47+00:00	86.7%	34.1%	48.8%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-09-30T22:39:53+00:00	86.7%	34.1%	48.8%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-09-30T23:24:57+00:00	86.7%	34.1%	40.8%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-10-01T00:10:35+00:00	86.7%	34.1%	40.8%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-10-01T00:55:52+00:00	86.7%	34.1%	40.8%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-10-01T01:40:58+00:00	88.3%	34.1%	40.8%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-10-01T02:26:05+00:00	88.3%	34.1%	40.8%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-10-01T03:11:49+00:00	88.3%	34.1%	40.8%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-10-01T03:57:05+00:00	88.3%	34.1%	40.8%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-10-01T04:42:11+00:00	88.3%	34.1%	40.8%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-10-01T05:27:16+00:00	88.3%	34.1%	46.5%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-10-01T06:12:21+00:00	88.3%	34.1%	46.5%	56.4%	34.5%
2026-10-01T06:57:26+00:00	88.3%	34.1%	46.5%	56.4%	34.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	84.3°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.0137
National Blend	61%	80.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.1544
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	0.1681
IFS HRES	56%	80.1°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.1901
WeatherNext 2	46%	79.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.2862
ICON	34%	78.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.4290
IFS Ensemble	34%	77.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.4343

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261001-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 27 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗