KBOI / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

56%

46%

34%

34%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

EPSNO 38.8¢Risks 38.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +38.80u · EPS −38.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	14.1%	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	3.4%	—	—	42.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	51.9%	—	—	52.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	0.3%	61.3%	—	—	60.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	0.9%	0.1%	—	52.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	18.9%	3.3%	16.1%	—	46.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	5.2%	1.5%	69.7%	—	54.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	68.4%	63.3%	69.8%	—	61.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	50.0%	96.9%	90.3%	—	63.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	2.5%	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	42.2%	74.5%	56.1%	—	66.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	63.2%	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	31.4%	27.4%	56.4%	—	74.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	16.5%	28.4%	—	—	56.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	26.3%	55.8%	72.1%	—	64.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	16.4%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	21.9%	18.3%	64.1%	—	52.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	27.1%	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	32.1%	15.5%	51.1%	—	48.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	34.6%	21.4%	0.0%	—	52.2%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	19.9%	31.0%	48.8%	21.5%	48.8%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	61.9%	24.4%	32.5%	52.4%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	28.7%	45.0%	66.9%	37.7%	57.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	50.0%	48.7%	74.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	63.2%	48.7%	60.6%	80.9%	35.6%	59.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	55.6%	61.0%	70.0%	—	61.0%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	64.2%	54.3%	54.3%	61.4%	35.8%	62.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	61.9%	44.0%	51.5%	60.5%	—	56.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	54.7%	30.3%	51.6%	42.1%	39.1%	39.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	40.2%	48.4%	50.0%	—	48.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	84.3°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.0137
National Blend	61%	80.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.1544
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	0.1681
IFS HRES	56%	80.1°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.1901
WeatherNext 2	46%	79.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.2862
ICON	34%	78.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.4290
IFS Ensemble	34%	77.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.4343

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261001-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 27 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗