KBOI / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 29 · 14:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

24%

24%

16%

12%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 42.4¢Risks 42.40u

ICONNO 57.6¢Risks 57.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +57.60u · ICON −57.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T14:57:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T14:40:19+00:00	87.3%	39.3%	37.1%	66.9%	37.6%
2026-09-27T15:25:31+00:00	87.3%	38.2%	37.1%	66.9%	37.6%
2026-09-27T16:10:35+00:00	87.3%	38.2%	37.1%	66.9%	37.6%
2026-09-27T16:55:43+00:00	87.3%	38.2%	42.0%	66.9%	28.4%
2026-09-27T17:40:50+00:00	87.3%	38.2%	42.0%	66.9%	28.4%
2026-09-27T18:26:05+00:00	87.3%	38.2%	42.0%	66.9%	28.4%
2026-09-27T19:11:10+00:00	87.3%	38.2%	42.0%	66.9%	28.4%
2026-09-27T19:56:21+00:00	81.7%	38.2%	42.0%	64.0%	28.4%
2026-09-27T20:41:30+00:00	81.7%	38.2%	42.0%	64.0%	28.4%
2026-09-27T21:26:34+00:00	81.7%	38.2%	42.0%	64.0%	28.4%
2026-09-27T22:11:38+00:00	81.7%	38.2%	42.0%	64.0%	28.4%
2026-09-27T22:56:47+00:00	81.7%	38.2%	43.9%	64.0%	28.4%
2026-09-27T23:41:52+00:00	81.7%	38.2%	43.9%	64.0%	28.4%
2026-09-28T00:26:58+00:00	81.7%	38.2%	43.9%	64.0%	28.4%
2026-09-28T01:12:06+00:00	81.7%	38.2%	43.9%	64.0%	28.4%
2026-09-28T01:57:14+00:00	67.5%	38.2%	43.9%	64.0%	28.4%
2026-09-28T02:42:19+00:00	67.5%	38.2%	43.9%	64.0%	28.4%
2026-09-29T04:21:42+00:00	65.2%	30.1%	27.6%	28.2%	12.3%
2026-09-29T05:06:58+00:00	65.2%	30.1%	24.1%	28.2%	12.3%
2026-09-29T05:52:06+00:00	65.2%	30.1%	24.1%	28.2%	12.3%
2026-09-29T06:37:12+00:00	65.2%	30.1%	24.1%	28.2%	12.3%
2026-09-29T07:22:50+00:00	69.3%	30.1%	24.1%	24.0%	12.3%
2026-09-29T08:08:26+00:00	69.3%	30.1%	24.1%	24.0%	12.3%
2026-09-29T08:53:34+00:00	69.3%	30.1%	24.1%	24.0%	12.3%
2026-09-29T09:38:39+00:00	69.3%	30.1%	24.1%	24.0%	12.3%
2026-09-29T10:23:44+00:00	69.3%	30.1%	24.1%	24.0%	12.3%
2026-09-29T11:09:01+00:00	69.3%	17.6%	24.1%	24.0%	12.3%
2026-09-29T11:54:08+00:00	69.3%	17.6%	24.1%	24.0%	12.3%
2026-09-29T12:39:13+00:00	69.3%	17.6%	24.1%	24.0%	12.3%
2026-09-29T13:24:18+00:00	73.4%	17.6%	24.1%	24.0%	12.3%
2026-09-29T14:11:43+00:00	72.6%	17.6%	24.1%	24.0%	12.2%
2026-09-29T14:57:02+00:00	72.6%	16.4%	24.1%	24.0%	12.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	73%	84.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-29 06:00	0.5271
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 03:00	0.3114
National Blend	31%	79.9°F	3.2°F	2026-09-29 06:00	0.0961
WeatherNext 2	24%	78.9°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 18:00	0.0581
IFS HRES	24%	78.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.0576
IFS Ensemble	16%	77.3°F	4.3°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.0269
ICON	12%	77.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.0149

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261001-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 27 · 14:40 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗