KBOI / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 29 · 14:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

24%

24%

16%

12%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 42.4¢Risks 42.40u

ICONNO 57.6¢Risks 57.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +57.60u · ICON −57.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	8.6%	—	—	15.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	1.6%	—	—	30.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	39.1%	—	—	39.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	0.1%	48.0%	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	0.3%	0.0%	—	38.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	10.6%	1.4%	8.7%	—	32.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	2.2%	0.5%	55.3%	—	39.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	53.2%	47.6%	54.8%	—	46.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	72.8%	33.8%	92.6%	81.0%	—	47.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	0.9%	93.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	26.2%	58.7%	38.8%	—	49.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	45.5%	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	17.2%	14.4%	38.2%	—	58.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	7.4%	14.8%	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	13.1%	36.6%	53.9%	—	45.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	7.0%	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	9.8%	7.8%	43.9%	—	32.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	12.7%	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	15.5%	5.9%	30.1%	—	28.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	16.8%	8.7%	0.0%	—	30.5%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	7.6%	14.0%	27.0%	8.5%	27.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	9.7%	14.5%	29.3%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	37.7%	11.8%	22.7%	42.6%	17.4%	33.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	25.9%	24.8%	50.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	36.8%	24.0%	34.3%	58.0%	14.9%	33.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	28.8%	33.8%	43.1%	—	33.8%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	35.8%	26.8%	26.8%	33.1%	13.8%	34.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	18.1%	23.6%	31.1%	—	27.2%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	25.0%	9.6%	22.6%	16.1%	14.2%	14.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	14.1%	19.2%	20.3%	—	19.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	73%	84.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-29 06:00	0.5271
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 03:00	0.3114
National Blend	31%	79.9°F	3.2°F	2026-09-29 06:00	0.0961
WeatherNext 2	24%	78.9°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 18:00	0.0581
IFS HRES	24%	78.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.0576
IFS Ensemble	16%	77.3°F	4.3°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.0269
ICON	12%	77.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.0149

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261001-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 27 · 14:40 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗