KBOI / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 26 · 01:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

98%

86%

45%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 72.3¢Risks 72.30u

ICONNO 27.7¢Risks 27.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +27.70u · ICON −27.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	—	—	—	82.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	74.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	1.7%	—	—	79.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	87.3%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	78.9%	—	—	89.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	10.4%	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	3.9%	51.3%	—	—	84.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	17.5%	16.6%	30.5%	—	97.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	83.5%	99.5%	99.9%	—	99.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	64.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	99.7%	77.8%	100.0%	—	99.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	98.9%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	84.8%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.8%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.9%	99.8%	99.7%	—	100.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	—	—	8.4%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	99.8%	100.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	84.1°F	5.6°F	2026-09-25 18:00	0.0000
IFS HRES	>99%	83.4°F	6.4°F	2026-09-25 12:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	98%	77.9°F	4.9°F	2026-09-25 12:00	0.0003
IFS Ensemble	86%	78.1°F	9.6°F	2026-09-25 00:00	0.0182
National Blend	53%	68.0°F	7.6°F	2026-09-25 06:00	0.2247
ICON	45%	66.2°F	9.8°F	2026-09-25 12:00	0.3058

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 25 · 19:40 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗