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KBOI / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 26 · 01:41 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
>99%
HRES
>99%
WN2
98%
EPS
86%
ICON
45%
Consensus
98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 72.3¢Risks 72.30u
VS
ICONNO 27.7¢Risks 27.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +27.70u · ICON −27.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-09-25T19:40:00+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-09-25T20:25:19+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-09-25T21:10:24+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-09-25T21:55:30+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-09-25T22:40:34+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-09-25T23:25:40+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-09-26T00:10:46+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-09-26T00:55:58+00:00AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-09-25T19:40:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-09-25T20:25:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-09-25T21:10:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-09-25T21:55:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-09-25T22:40:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-09-25T23:25:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-09-26T00:10:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-09-26T00:55:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.9% · 2026-09-25T19:40:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.9% · 2026-09-25T20:25:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.9% · 2026-09-25T21:10:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.9% · 2026-09-25T21:55:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.9% · 2026-09-25T22:40:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.4% · 2026-09-25T23:25:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.4% · 2026-09-26T00:10:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.4% · 2026-09-26T00:55:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.4% · 2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:00IFS HRES: 99.4% · 2026-09-25T19:40:00+00:00IFS HRES: 99.4% · 2026-09-25T20:25:19+00:00IFS HRES: 99.4% · 2026-09-25T21:10:24+00:00IFS HRES: 99.4% · 2026-09-25T21:55:30+00:00IFS HRES: 99.4% · 2026-09-25T22:40:34+00:00IFS HRES: 99.4% · 2026-09-25T23:25:40+00:00IFS HRES: 99.4% · 2026-09-26T00:10:46+00:00IFS HRES: 99.4% · 2026-09-26T00:55:58+00:00IFS HRES: 99.4% · 2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:00ICON: 44.7% · 2026-09-25T19:40:00+00:00ICON: 44.7% · 2026-09-25T20:25:19+00:00ICON: 44.7% · 2026-09-25T21:10:24+00:00ICON: 44.7% · 2026-09-25T21:55:30+00:00ICON: 44.7% · 2026-09-25T22:40:34+00:00ICON: 44.7% · 2026-09-25T23:25:40+00:00ICON: 44.7% · 2026-09-26T00:10:46+00:00ICON: 44.7% · 2026-09-26T00:55:58+00:00ICON: 44.7% · 2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:0009-25 19:4009-25 22:4009-26 01:41
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-25T19:40:00+00:0099.6%86.5%90.9%99.4%44.7%
2026-09-25T20:25:19+00:0099.6%86.5%90.9%99.4%44.7%
2026-09-25T21:10:24+00:0099.6%86.5%90.9%99.4%44.7%
2026-09-25T21:55:30+00:0099.6%86.5%90.9%99.4%44.7%
2026-09-25T22:40:34+00:0099.6%86.5%90.9%99.4%44.7%
2026-09-25T23:25:40+00:0099.6%86.5%98.4%99.4%44.7%
2026-09-26T00:10:46+00:0099.6%86.5%98.4%99.4%44.7%
2026-09-26T00:55:58+00:0099.6%86.5%98.4%99.4%44.7%
2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:0099.9%86.5%98.4%99.4%44.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single>99%84.1°F5.6°F2026-09-25 18:000.0000
IFS HRES>99%83.4°F6.4°F2026-09-25 12:000.0000
WeatherNext 298%77.9°F4.9°F2026-09-25 12:000.0003
IFS Ensemble86%78.1°F9.6°F2026-09-25 00:000.0182
National Blend53%68.0°F7.6°F2026-09-25 06:000.2247
ICON45%66.2°F9.8°F2026-09-25 12:000.3058

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 25 · 19:40 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗