KBOI / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

89%

79%

76%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 87.5¢Risks 87.50u

ICONNO 12.5¢Risks 12.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +12.50u · ICON −12.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	30.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	—	27.0%	—	—	42.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	22.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	0.1%	6.8%	—	—	30.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	0.6%	0.5%	1.8%	—	65.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	24.9%	81.6%	93.8%	—	78.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	83.5%	16.9%	94.0%	—	83.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	89.6%	97.0%	90.0%	—	93.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	66.2%	97.0%	91.0%	—	96.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	18.4%	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	90.6%	88.2%	94.6%	—	94.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	87.5%	78.5%	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	88.1%	86.7%	79.7%	75.6%	—	95.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	92.3%	89.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	88.4%	94.4%	86.4%	88.9%	—	94.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	78.9%	85.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	90.1%	79.5%	91.4%	76.5%	71.5%	96.2%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	87.4%	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	96.2%	93.4%	92.7%	81.7%	0.0%	99.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	94.3%	87.1%	93.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	92.4%	96.5%	80.1%	63.7%	99.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	84.0%	96.5%	74.7%	—	98.3%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	95.1%	92.5%	97.5%	85.6%	68.0%	98.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	96.8%	97.9%	92.3%	—	99.1%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	95.0%	98.1%	89.9%	71.6%	98.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	97.5%	92.4%	98.2%	94.2%	—	98.4%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	97.5%	99.1%	89.2%	60.1%	98.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	97.1%	99.3%	95.2%	—	98.5%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	98.2%	99.4%	91.7%	84.8%	97.6%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	96.6%	98.6%	90.8%	—	96.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	98%	89.2°F	5.8°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.0002
AIFS Single	97%	85.8°F	4.9°F	2026-09-27 18:00	0.0009
WeatherNext 2	89%	81.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.0117
IFS Ensemble	79%	82.5°F	7.5°F	2026-09-27 00:00	0.0449
ICON	76%	80.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.0552
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-27 14:00	0.2125
National Blend	50%	76.6°F	7.7°F	2026-09-27 06:00	0.2450

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 27 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗