KBOI / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

89%

79%

76%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 87.5¢Risks 87.50u

ICONNO 12.5¢Risks 12.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +12.50u · ICON −12.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T02:42:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T03:20:03+00:00	90.6%	67.2%	76.6%	91.0%	88.3%
2026-09-27T04:05:15+00:00	90.6%	67.2%	76.6%	91.0%	88.3%
2026-09-27T04:50:23+00:00	90.6%	67.2%	76.6%	91.0%	92.8%
2026-09-27T05:35:33+00:00	90.6%	67.2%	80.5%	91.0%	92.8%
2026-09-27T06:20:40+00:00	90.6%	67.2%	80.5%	91.0%	92.8%
2026-09-27T07:05:46+00:00	90.6%	67.2%	80.5%	91.0%	92.8%
2026-09-27T07:51:31+00:00	92.5%	67.2%	80.5%	96.2%	92.8%
2026-09-27T08:36:56+00:00	92.5%	67.2%	80.5%	96.2%	92.8%
2026-09-27T09:22:01+00:00	92.5%	67.2%	80.5%	96.2%	92.8%
2026-09-27T10:07:06+00:00	92.5%	67.2%	80.5%	96.2%	92.8%
2026-09-27T10:52:12+00:00	92.5%	67.2%	80.5%	96.2%	92.8%
2026-09-27T11:37:22+00:00	92.5%	79.2%	89.2%	96.2%	92.8%
2026-09-27T12:22:27+00:00	92.5%	79.2%	89.2%	96.2%	92.8%
2026-09-27T13:07:35+00:00	92.5%	79.2%	89.2%	96.2%	92.8%
2026-09-27T13:52:48+00:00	93.6%	79.2%	89.2%	96.2%	92.8%
2026-09-27T14:40:19+00:00	93.6%	79.2%	89.2%	96.2%	92.8%
2026-09-27T15:25:31+00:00	93.6%	78.8%	89.2%	96.2%	92.8%
2026-09-27T16:10:35+00:00	93.6%	78.8%	89.2%	96.2%	92.8%
2026-09-27T16:55:43+00:00	93.6%	78.8%	89.7%	96.2%	76.5%
2026-09-27T17:40:50+00:00	93.6%	78.8%	89.7%	96.2%	76.5%
2026-09-27T18:26:05+00:00	93.6%	78.8%	89.7%	96.2%	76.5%
2026-09-27T19:11:10+00:00	93.6%	78.8%	89.7%	96.2%	76.5%
2026-09-27T19:56:21+00:00	97.0%	78.8%	89.7%	98.5%	76.5%
2026-09-27T20:41:30+00:00	97.0%	78.8%	89.7%	98.5%	76.5%
2026-09-27T21:26:34+00:00	97.0%	78.8%	89.7%	98.5%	76.5%
2026-09-27T22:11:38+00:00	97.0%	78.8%	89.7%	98.5%	76.5%
2026-09-27T22:56:47+00:00	97.0%	78.8%	89.2%	98.5%	76.5%
2026-09-27T23:41:52+00:00	97.0%	78.8%	89.2%	98.5%	76.5%
2026-09-28T00:26:58+00:00	97.0%	78.8%	89.2%	98.5%	76.5%
2026-09-28T01:12:06+00:00	97.0%	78.8%	89.2%	98.5%	76.5%
2026-09-28T01:57:14+00:00	97.0%	78.8%	89.2%	98.5%	76.5%
2026-09-28T02:42:19+00:00	97.0%	78.8%	89.2%	98.5%	76.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	98%	89.2°F	5.8°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.0002
AIFS Single	97%	85.8°F	4.9°F	2026-09-27 18:00	0.0009
WeatherNext 2	89%	81.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.0117
IFS Ensemble	79%	82.5°F	7.5°F	2026-09-27 00:00	0.0449
ICON	76%	80.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.0552
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-27 14:00	0.2125
National Blend	50%	76.6°F	7.7°F	2026-09-27 06:00	0.2450

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 27 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗