KBOI / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 85°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 02 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

39%

34%

19%

16%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.8¢Risks 38.80u

ICONNO 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.20u · ICON −61.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	4.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	3.0%	—	—	7.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	0.0%	0.2%	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	15.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	1.6%	28.5%	52.9%	—	24.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	28.9%	0.6%	50.8%	—	28.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	36.7%	61.0%	37.5%	—	45.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	59.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	10.4%	58.3%	36.9%	—	55.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	0.4%	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	33.0%	28.4%	43.9%	—	42.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	15.5%	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	23.0%	15.4%	12.4%	—	43.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	31.8%	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	35.7%	19.7%	23.2%	—	36.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	11.4%	17.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	10.8%	24.3%	9.0%	6.7%	38.8%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	16.3%	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	24.7%	23.0%	9.9%	0.0%	55.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	12.9%	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	18.3%	30.0%	6.8%	2.4%	51.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	7.8%	27.3%	4.0%	—	38.1%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	14.4%	29.8%	7.5%	2.1%	33.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	22.8%	29.1%	12.2%	—	41.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	14.9%	27.3%	7.9%	1.7%	31.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	8.6%	24.2%	11.1%	—	25.3%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	17.2%	29.3%	4.7%	0.4%	24.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	12.8%	28.5%	8.6%	—	19.2%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	14.2%	25.0%	3.7%	1.6%	11.7%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	6.8%	13.2%	2.3%	—	6.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	62%	85.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	0.3795
WeatherNext 2	39%	83.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 18:00	0.1490
IFS HRES	34%	83.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	0.1183
National Blend	26%	83.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 00:00	0.0692
IFS Ensemble	19%	80.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.0365
ICON	16%	81.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.0256
NWS forecast	13%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 02:00	0.0164

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE85
Opened Sep 25 · 19:40 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗