KBOI / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 08 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

49%

40%

11%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 33.7¢Risks 33.70u

ICONNO 66.3¢Risks 66.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.30u · ICON −66.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	99.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	99.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	99.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	99.9%	—	—	99.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	98.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	95.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	97.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	77.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	60.2%	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	97.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	46.2%	—	—	82.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	31.8%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	0.1%	0.7%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	24.6%	14.5%	63.8%	—	45.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	8.2%	1.3%	99.2%	—	31.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	4.1%	—	17.9%	—	56.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	0.5%	23.0%	67.7%	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	0.1%	1.7%	32.2%	—	40.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	0.3%	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	10.1%	54.4%	50.0%	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	12.5%	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	6.3%	36.4%	6.3%	—	16.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	1.0%	39.7%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.2%	56.8%	3.0%	—	7.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	3.0%	27.4%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.4%	49.0%	11.8%	—	3.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.5%	41.6%	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.0%	18.3%	16.2%	—	5.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.8%	20.6%	0.0%	—	4.5%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.3%	11.0%	9.4%	—	3.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.1%	12.6%	8.7%	—	4.5%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.0%	11.8%	5.5%	0.2%	2.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.3%	7.7%	10.3%	—	3.5%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	11.3%	2.0%	3.2%	2.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.3%	5.0%	5.4%	—	3.5%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	2.7%	2.5%	0.7%	3.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.9%	1.4%	1.4%	—	2.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	1.6%	0.5%	0.4%	2.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	—	0.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	66%	61.6°F	5.2°F	2026-10-07 00:00	0.4303
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-07 15:00	0.2905
National Blend	53%	60.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-07 06:00	0.2809
AIFS Single	49%	59.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-07 18:00	0.2421
WeatherNext 2	40%	58.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 12:00	0.1616
IFS HRES	11%	52.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	0.0121
ICON	2%	47.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	0.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261012-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 06 · 04:08 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗