KBOI / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 08 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

49%

40%

11%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 33.7¢Risks 33.70u

ICONNO 66.3¢Risks 66.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.30u · ICON −66.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T02:21:13+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-06T04:08:19+00:00	64.7%	58.3%	41.9%	3.0%	51.2%
2026-10-06T04:53:34+00:00	64.7%	58.3%	39.6%	3.0%	51.2%
2026-10-06T05:38:48+00:00	64.7%	58.3%	39.6%	3.0%	51.2%
2026-10-06T06:23:55+00:00	64.7%	58.3%	39.6%	3.0%	51.2%
2026-10-06T07:09:00+00:00	64.7%	58.3%	39.6%	3.0%	51.2%
2026-10-06T07:54:09+00:00	70.8%	58.3%	39.6%	3.0%	26.6%
2026-10-06T08:39:15+00:00	70.8%	58.3%	39.6%	3.0%	26.6%
2026-10-06T09:24:24+00:00	70.8%	58.3%	39.6%	3.0%	26.6%
2026-10-06T10:09:31+00:00	70.8%	58.3%	39.6%	3.0%	26.6%
2026-10-06T10:54:38+00:00	70.8%	56.4%	42.1%	3.0%	26.6%
2026-10-06T11:39:44+00:00	70.8%	56.4%	42.1%	3.0%	26.6%
2026-10-06T12:24:51+00:00	70.8%	56.4%	42.1%	3.0%	26.6%
2026-10-06T13:09:58+00:00	70.8%	56.4%	42.1%	3.0%	26.6%
2026-10-06T13:55:09+00:00	75.2%	56.4%	42.1%	3.0%	26.6%
2026-10-06T14:43:59+00:00	75.2%	56.4%	42.1%	3.0%	26.6%
2026-10-07T16:33:37+00:00	60.5%	65.6%	53.0%	12.7%	3.5%
2026-10-07T17:18:50+00:00	60.5%	65.6%	26.8%	12.7%	3.5%
2026-10-07T18:03:57+00:00	60.5%	65.6%	26.8%	12.7%	3.5%
2026-10-07T18:49:03+00:00	60.5%	65.6%	26.8%	12.7%	3.5%
2026-10-07T19:34:15+00:00	60.5%	65.6%	26.8%	11.0%	1.7%
2026-10-07T20:19:23+00:00	60.5%	65.6%	26.8%	11.0%	1.7%
2026-10-07T21:04:56+00:00	60.5%	65.6%	26.8%	11.0%	1.7%
2026-10-07T21:50:04+00:00	60.5%	65.6%	26.8%	11.0%	1.7%
2026-10-07T22:35:11+00:00	60.5%	65.6%	26.8%	11.0%	1.7%
2026-10-07T23:20:25+00:00	60.5%	65.6%	40.2%	11.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T00:05:33+00:00	60.5%	65.6%	40.2%	11.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T00:50:56+00:00	60.5%	65.6%	40.2%	11.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T01:36:05+00:00	49.2%	65.6%	40.2%	11.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T02:21:13+00:00	49.2%	65.6%	40.2%	11.0%	1.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	66%	61.6°F	5.2°F	2026-10-07 00:00	0.4303
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-07 15:00	0.2905
National Blend	53%	60.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-07 06:00	0.2809
AIFS Single	49%	59.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-07 18:00	0.2421
WeatherNext 2	40%	58.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 12:00	0.1616
IFS HRES	11%	52.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	0.0121
ICON	2%	47.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	0.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261012-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 06 · 04:08 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗