KBOI / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 10 · 07:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 8.8¢Risks 4.42u

EPSNO 91.1¢Risks 45.57u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.57u · EPS −45.57u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	17.3%	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	30.7%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	37.8%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	24.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	22.3%	20.8%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	20.9%	14.1%	0.0%	—	7.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	0.9%	4.8%	0.3%	—	6.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	5.0%	—	28.3%	—	4.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	3.9%	1.1%	18.4%	—	5.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	19.5%	1.3%	63.9%	—	4.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	25.3%	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	1.1%	0.5%	0.9%	—	1.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	20.9%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	3.9%	8.6%	0.8%	—	1.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	1.4%	1.7%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	1.1%	0.6%	40.4%	—	1.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	1.4%	9.2%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	3.0%	0.6%	7.1%	—	1.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	0.3%	3.0%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	0.4%	3.5%	0.5%	—	1.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	0.9%	6.0%	0.5%	—	0.8%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	2.9%	15.3%	3.5%	—	0.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.7%	16.7%	1.1%	—	1.3%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	19.1%	0.3%	3.7%	0.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.5%	18.2%	0.6%	—	1.2%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.6%	10.7%	1.2%	48.7%	1.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.2%	16.4%	0.7%	—	0.8%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.1%	20.2%	2.3%	61.4%	1.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.0%	17.2%	0.9%	—	0.5%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	12.5%	0.6%	51.6%	2.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	18%	36.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-09 18:00	0.0313
NWS forecast	11%	37.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-10 03:00	0.0125
National Blend	11%	39.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.0121
IFS HRES	10%	38.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.0100
WeatherNext 2	9%	38.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-09 18:00	0.0081
ICON	4%	39.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.0014
IFS Ensemble	<1%	41.1°F	2.5°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261012-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Boise freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗