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KBOI / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 10 · 07:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
18%
HRES
10%
WN2
9%
ICON
4%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 8.8¢Risks 4.42u
VS
EPSNO 91.1¢Risks 45.57u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.57u · EPS −45.57u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-09T07:51:45+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-09T11:37:54+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-10T04:17:49+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-10T05:03:10+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-10T05:48:18+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-10T06:33:23+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-10T07:18:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T07:51:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T11:37:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T04:17:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T05:03:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T05:48:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T06:33:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T07:18:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-09T07:51:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-09T11:37:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.6% · 2026-10-10T04:17:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-10T05:03:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-10T05:48:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-10T06:33:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-10T07:18:28+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-09T07:51:45+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-09T11:37:54+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-10T04:17:49+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-10T05:03:10+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-10T05:48:18+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-10T06:33:23+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-10T07:18:28+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-09T07:51:45+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-09T11:37:54+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-10T04:17:49+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-10T05:03:10+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-10T05:48:18+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-10T06:33:23+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-10T07:18:28+00:0010-09 07:5110-09 11:3710-10 07:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-10T07:18:28+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-09T07:51:45+00:0010.7%0.1%8.8%18.4%1.1%
2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:0010.7%0.1%8.8%18.4%1.1%
2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:0010.7%0.1%8.8%18.4%1.1%
2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:0010.7%0.1%8.8%18.4%1.1%
2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:0010.7%0.1%8.8%18.4%1.1%
2026-10-09T11:37:54+00:0010.7%0.1%8.8%18.4%1.1%
2026-10-10T04:17:49+00:0017.7%0.0%11.6%10.0%3.7%
2026-10-10T05:03:10+00:0017.7%0.0%9.0%10.0%3.7%
2026-10-10T05:48:18+00:0017.7%0.0%9.0%10.0%3.7%
2026-10-10T06:33:23+00:0017.7%0.0%9.0%10.0%3.7%
2026-10-10T07:18:28+00:0017.7%0.0%9.0%10.0%3.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single18%36.3°F4.1°F2026-10-09 18:000.0313
NWS forecast11%37.0°F3.7°F2026-10-10 03:000.0125
National Blend11%39.0°F5.3°F2026-10-10 00:000.0121
IFS HRES10%38.9°F5.0°F2026-10-09 12:000.0100
WeatherNext 29%38.0°F4.1°F2026-10-09 18:000.0081
ICON4%39.8°F4.1°F2026-10-09 12:000.0014
IFS Ensemble<1%41.1°F2.5°F2026-10-09 00:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261012-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Boise freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗