KBOI / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

70%

62%

42%

38%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.8¢Risks 56.75u

ICONNO 43.2¢Risks 43.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.25u · ICON −43.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T03:31:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T04:21:09+00:00	96.6%	53.7%	80.3%	58.7%	45.5%
2026-10-07T05:07:01+00:00	96.6%	53.7%	85.4%	58.7%	45.5%
2026-10-07T05:52:25+00:00	96.6%	53.7%	85.4%	58.7%	45.5%
2026-10-07T06:37:50+00:00	96.6%	53.7%	85.4%	58.7%	45.5%
2026-10-07T07:23:57+00:00	96.4%	53.7%	85.4%	64.2%	41.9%
2026-10-07T08:09:38+00:00	96.4%	53.7%	85.4%	64.2%	41.9%
2026-10-07T08:54:49+00:00	96.4%	53.7%	85.4%	64.2%	41.9%
2026-10-07T09:39:56+00:00	96.4%	53.7%	85.4%	64.2%	41.9%
2026-10-07T10:25:21+00:00	96.4%	53.7%	85.4%	64.2%	41.9%
2026-10-07T11:10:50+00:00	96.4%	56.1%	81.1%	64.2%	41.9%
2026-10-07T11:56:03+00:00	96.4%	56.1%	81.1%	64.2%	41.9%
2026-10-07T12:41:09+00:00	96.4%	56.1%	81.1%	64.2%	41.9%
2026-10-07T13:26:19+00:00	87.9%	56.1%	81.1%	64.2%	41.9%
2026-10-07T14:17:36+00:00	88.0%	56.1%	81.2%	64.2%	42.5%
2026-10-07T15:02:43+00:00	88.0%	54.5%	81.2%	64.2%	42.5%
2026-10-07T15:47:50+00:00	88.0%	54.6%	81.2%	64.2%	42.5%
2026-10-09T15:28:00+00:00	63.6%	62.3%	44.1%	29.5%	55.8%
2026-10-09T16:13:23+00:00	63.6%	62.3%	44.1%	29.5%	55.8%
2026-10-09T16:58:30+00:00	63.6%	62.3%	42.5%	29.5%	55.8%
2026-10-09T17:43:36+00:00	63.6%	62.3%	42.5%	29.5%	55.8%
2026-10-09T18:28:42+00:00	63.6%	62.3%	42.5%	29.5%	55.8%
2026-10-09T19:13:46+00:00	63.6%	62.3%	42.5%	29.5%	55.8%
2026-10-09T19:58:58+00:00	73.6%	62.3%	42.5%	69.8%	38.5%
2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:00	73.6%	62.3%	42.5%	69.8%	38.5%
2026-10-09T21:29:31+00:00	73.6%	62.3%	42.5%	69.8%	38.5%
2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:00	73.6%	62.3%	42.5%	69.8%	38.5%
2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:00	73.6%	62.3%	42.5%	69.8%	38.5%
2026-10-09T23:44:51+00:00	73.6%	62.3%	42.5%	69.8%	38.5%
2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:00	73.6%	62.3%	42.5%	69.8%	38.5%
2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:00	73.6%	62.3%	42.5%	69.8%	38.5%
2026-10-10T02:00:51+00:00	75.0%	62.3%	42.5%	69.8%	38.5%
2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:00	75.0%	62.3%	42.5%	69.8%	38.5%
2026-10-10T03:31:25+00:00	75.0%	62.3%	42.5%	69.8%	38.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	62.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-09 18:00	0.0625
IFS HRES	70%	62.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.0912
IFS Ensemble	62%	61.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.1421
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-09 15:00	0.2070
National Blend	54%	60.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.2153
WeatherNext 2	42%	58.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.3306
ICON	38%	58.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.3782

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261013-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 07 · 04:21 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 60°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗