KBOI / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

70%

62%

42%

38%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.8¢Risks 56.75u

ICONNO 43.2¢Risks 43.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.25u · ICON −43.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	99.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	100.0%	—	—	99.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	97.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	99.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	96.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	97.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	84.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	3.5%	—	—	56.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	5.8%	—	—	93.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	2.7%	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	3.2%	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	24.6%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	9.3%	53.4%	—	—	56.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	17.5%	—	0.0%	—	81.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	94.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	19.4%	97.7%	94.3%	—	68.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	15.5%	82.6%	90.7%	—	75.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	92.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	66.3%	94.5%	91.3%	—	65.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	33.0%	78.1%	29.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	1.9%	82.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	42.2%	93.8%	37.9%	—	55.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	61.5%	54.5%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	24.4%	90.6%	86.1%	—	60.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	50.9%	87.3%	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	52.9%	90.2%	91.0%	—	70.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.0%	64.7%	82.3%	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	71.5%	49.0%	60.2%	87.7%	—	78.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	57.4%	67.4%	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	81.7%	77.0%	64.9%	96.0%	0.0%	82.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	66.4%	65.4%	0.0%	—	81.7%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	48.8%	61.5%	87.3%	40.8%	66.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	35.9%	47.6%	80.1%	—	59.5%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	37.7%	48.8%	88.2%	0.0%	70.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.7%	41.0%	47.4%	85.0%	—	63.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	61.9%	31.9%	48.7%	79.0%	26.2%	65.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	43.1%	59.7%	80.9%	—	62.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	34.5%	48.5%	81.8%	26.8%	55.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	27.2%	41.0%	77.6%	—	51.5%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.4%	25.0%	48.4%	73.7%	22.6%	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	38.6%	46.7%	70.5%	—	58.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	62.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-09 18:00	0.0625
IFS HRES	70%	62.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.0912
IFS Ensemble	62%	61.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.1421
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-09 15:00	0.2070
National Blend	54%	60.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.2153
WeatherNext 2	42%	58.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.3306
ICON	38%	58.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.3782

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261013-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 07 · 04:21 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 60°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗