KBOI / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≤ 54°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 10 · 16:24 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 4.8¢Risks 1.20u

AIFSNO 95.2¢Risks 23.80u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.80u · AIFS −23.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T16:24:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T07:51:46+00:00	6.9%	13.1%	13.7%	32.3%	11.6%
2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00	6.9%	13.1%	13.7%	32.3%	11.6%
2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00	6.9%	13.1%	13.7%	32.3%	11.6%
2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00	6.9%	13.1%	13.7%	32.3%	11.6%
2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00	6.9%	13.1%	13.7%	32.3%	11.6%
2026-10-09T11:37:54+00:00	6.9%	13.1%	13.7%	32.3%	11.6%
2026-10-09T12:23:22+00:00	6.9%	10.8%	13.7%	32.3%	11.6%
2026-10-09T13:08:28+00:00	6.9%	10.8%	13.7%	32.3%	11.6%
2026-10-09T13:53:35+00:00	7.5%	10.8%	13.7%	32.3%	11.6%
2026-10-09T14:42:11+00:00	7.5%	10.8%	13.7%	32.3%	11.6%
2026-10-09T15:28:00+00:00	7.5%	10.8%	13.7%	32.3%	11.6%
2026-10-09T16:13:23+00:00	7.5%	10.8%	13.7%	32.3%	11.6%
2026-10-09T16:58:30+00:00	7.5%	10.8%	12.2%	32.3%	11.6%
2026-10-09T17:43:36+00:00	7.5%	10.8%	12.2%	32.3%	11.6%
2026-10-09T18:28:42+00:00	7.5%	10.8%	12.2%	32.3%	11.6%
2026-10-09T19:13:46+00:00	7.5%	10.8%	12.2%	32.3%	11.6%
2026-10-09T19:58:58+00:00	4.3%	10.8%	12.2%	6.4%	22.5%
2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:00	4.3%	10.8%	12.2%	6.4%	22.5%
2026-10-09T21:29:31+00:00	4.3%	10.8%	12.2%	6.4%	22.5%
2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:00	4.3%	10.8%	12.2%	6.4%	22.5%
2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:00	4.3%	10.8%	12.2%	6.4%	22.5%
2026-10-09T23:44:51+00:00	4.3%	10.8%	12.2%	6.4%	22.5%
2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:00	4.3%	10.8%	12.2%	6.4%	22.5%
2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:00	4.3%	10.8%	12.2%	6.4%	22.5%
2026-10-10T02:00:51+00:00	3.9%	10.8%	12.2%	6.4%	22.5%
2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:00	3.9%	10.8%	12.2%	6.4%	22.5%
2026-10-10T03:31:25+00:00	3.9%	10.8%	12.2%	6.4%	22.5%
2026-10-10T04:17:49+00:00	3.9%	10.8%	12.2%	6.4%	22.5%
2026-10-10T05:03:10+00:00	3.9%	10.8%	7.5%	6.4%	22.5%
2026-10-10T05:48:18+00:00	3.9%	10.8%	7.5%	6.4%	22.5%
2026-10-10T06:33:23+00:00	3.9%	10.8%	7.5%	6.4%	22.5%
2026-10-10T07:18:28+00:00	3.9%	10.8%	7.5%	6.4%	22.5%
2026-10-10T08:03:37+00:00	1.5%	10.8%	7.5%	6.4%	6.4%
2026-10-10T08:48:42+00:00	1.5%	10.8%	7.5%	6.4%	6.4%
2026-10-10T09:33:47+00:00	1.5%	10.8%	7.5%	6.4%	6.4%
2026-10-10T10:19:01+00:00	1.5%	10.8%	7.5%	6.4%	6.4%
2026-10-10T11:04:11+00:00	1.5%	6.2%	7.5%	6.4%	6.4%
2026-10-10T11:49:17+00:00	1.5%	6.2%	7.5%	6.4%	6.4%
2026-10-10T12:34:22+00:00	1.5%	6.2%	7.5%	6.4%	6.4%
2026-10-10T13:19:28+00:00	1.5%	6.2%	7.5%	6.4%	6.4%
2026-10-10T14:05:00+00:00	1.9%	6.3%	7.7%	6.4%	6.5%
2026-10-10T14:54:10+00:00	1.9%	6.0%	7.7%	6.4%	6.5%
2026-10-10T15:39:33+00:00	1.9%	5.9%	7.7%	6.4%	6.5%
2026-10-10T16:24:40+00:00	1.9%	5.9%	7.7%	6.4%	6.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	8%	59.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 18:00	0.0059
ICON	6%	60.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.0042
IFS HRES	6%	62.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.0041
IFS Ensemble	6%	62.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.0035
National Blend	2%	61.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-10 06:00	0.0005
AIFS Single	2%	63.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-10 06:00	0.0004
NWS forecast	<1%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-10 14:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 54°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261013-TMAX-LE54
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Boise stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 54°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗