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KBOI / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≤ 54°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 10 · 16:24 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
8%
ICON
6%
HRES
6%
EPS
6%
AIFS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 4.8¢Risks 1.20u
VS
AIFSNO 95.2¢Risks 23.80u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.80u · AIFS −23.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 73.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.8% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.2% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.3% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.9% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.2% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.3% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.1% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 84.6% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.1% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.2% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 68.2% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 52.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 47.8% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 52.3% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 27.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.8% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.1% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.5% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.6% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.8% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 86.4% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 79.9% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 87.9% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.2% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 85.8% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 62.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 44.8% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.7% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.6% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 99.4% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 30.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 21.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 97.9% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 100.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 11.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 100.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 14.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 11.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 11.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.2% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.3% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 68.2% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0009-28 12:0010-06 06:0010-13 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:0073.0%————23.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:0054.8%—————
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:0022.0%————0.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:0075.2%—————
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:000.0%—0.1%———
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:001.2%—0.0%——0.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:000.4%————0.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:001.2%————0.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:001.4%—————
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:001.1%—————
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:0017.9%————0.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:0047.3%—————
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:0013.9%—0.1%———
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:0046.2%————4.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:0053.3%—————
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:0071.1%—86.4%——19.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:0043.1%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:0011.4%—79.9%——1.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:0022.3%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:0084.6%—87.9%——6.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0048.1%—10.2%———
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0013.2%—85.8%——8.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:008.4%—62.0%———
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:003.6%—44.8%——7.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:004.2%—16.7%———
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:003.1%68.2%17.6%——15.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:003.1%—4.5%———
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:003.1%52.1%—99.4%—3.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:001.8%—0.7%———
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:002.2%47.8%0.2%0.6%—8.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:007.7%—2.7%———
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:002.4%52.3%2.9%1.1%—5.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:003.9%—0.7%———
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:006.7%7.8%0.5%0.9%—8.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0024.3%—1.1%———
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0015.2%27.2%3.4%30.8%—14.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0011.5%84.3%2.3%———
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0025.5%18.4%0.4%21.4%—10.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0026.4%7.8%10.8%——68.2%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0017.2%32.2%0.7%1.2%—7.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0014.8%11.3%1.0%——6.7%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:008.6%9.8%0.6%0.5%—4.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0010.0%5.1%1.5%——2.8%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:003.2%10.3%6.1%0.7%—1.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:005.8%6.5%3.8%——1.8%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:001.1%1.7%4.0%0.1%100.0%1.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:001.6%3.3%3.5%97.9%—1.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:003.3%7.6%4.0%0.5%11.0%2.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:004.3%12.6%7.4%0.9%—4.0%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:002.1%10.6%6.3%0.3%100.0%1.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:002.6%8.2%6.0%0.4%—2.4%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:002.4%11.3%5.0%0.6%14.9%1.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:002.0%5.8%2.3%0.4%—2.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:002.5%7.8%3.7%0.3%11.5%2.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:001.8%9.9%4.8%0.4%—2.7%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:001.3%9.6%2.6%0.4%11.0%2.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.6%3.7%2.3%0.4%—1.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 28%59.8°F3.7°F2026-10-09 18:000.0059
ICON6%60.5°F4.0°F2026-10-10 00:000.0042
IFS HRES6%62.1°F5.0°F2026-10-09 12:000.0041
IFS Ensemble6%62.1°F4.9°F2026-10-10 00:000.0035
National Blend2%61.0°F3.2°F2026-10-10 06:000.0005
AIFS Single2%63.4°F4.3°F2026-10-10 06:000.0004
NWS forecast<1%64.0°F3.9°F2026-10-10 14:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 54°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261013-TMAX-LE54
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Boise stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 54°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗