KBOI / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

78%

76%

72%

62%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 79.0¢Risks 79.00u

HRESNO 21.0¢Risks 21.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.00u · HRES −21.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	100.0%	—	—	96.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	96.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	93.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	84.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	83.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	47.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	66.5%	—	—	75.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	—	67.0%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	0.6%	16.3%	—	—	70.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	27.5%	9.9%	2.5%	—	74.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	49.3%	15.2%	98.9%	—	58.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	70.4%	9.0%	89.7%	—	59.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	64.8%	91.3%	87.7%	—	73.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	86.2%	66.2%	90.3%	68.5%	—	72.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	6.4%	87.2%	—	—	77.4%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	93.5%	11.3%	88.7%	81.0%	—	79.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	92.2%	71.3%	82.8%	—	—	79.1%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	66.1%	81.6%	84.0%	—	79.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	73.9%	78.3%	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	92.8%	64.3%	80.3%	86.4%	—	80.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	68.3%	83.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	63.1%	79.5%	84.9%	—	83.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	60.5%	83.7%	—	—	81.7%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	96.2%	50.0%	81.0%	95.5%	—	84.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	96.9%	59.0%	82.5%	0.0%	—	84.6%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	54.6%	83.2%	94.3%	10.5%	84.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	60.7%	83.3%	94.8%	—	85.5%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.0%	65.8%	80.9%	96.3%	20.8%	87.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	97.4%	68.7%	85.7%	95.7%	—	87.8%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	74.9%	90.5%	96.3%	44.6%	90.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	79.9%	92.9%	98.6%	—	91.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	80.9%	93.7%	99.6%	48.5%	97.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	81.9%	95.9%	99.5%	—	97.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	80.8%	97.1%	99.4%	91.1%	97.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	75.9%	98.1%	98.9%	—	98.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	70.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	78%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	65.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	63.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	63.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-09 15:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	62.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261014-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 08 · 03:07 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗